FC St. Pauli v 1. FC Nürnberg

9th1–32nd

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC St. Pauli		1. FC Nürnberg
24	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	7
4	Corners	2
16	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
466	Passes	527
47%	Possession %	53%
3.96	xG	0.95

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 42%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.37

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

1. FC Nürnberg 0

2.29Marathonbet · fair 2.10 · qualifies at 2.16+ · 1.77u

Why this price?

Back 1. FC Nürnberg 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.29 with Marathonbet — 1. FC Nürnberg to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.10. The offered 2.29 implies only 44%, so the price is 9.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.77 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.12, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC St. Pauli	29.9%	3.34	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-15.1
Match result	Draw	28.1%	3.56	3.65 Betano	27.4%	+0.7
Match result	1. FC Nürnberg	42.0%	2.38	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+9.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.8%	1.39	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-10.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.2%	3.54	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+6.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.4%	2.20	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-13.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.6%	1.83	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+10.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.1%	4.15	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-13.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.9%	1.32	1.53 BetVictor	65.4%	+10.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.9%	1.96	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-13.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.1%	2.04	2.50 William Hill	40.0%	+9.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

1. FC Nürnberg favoured against FC St. Pauli

Our model makes FC St. Pauli 30% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 28% and 1. FC Nürnberg at 42%. The goal projection is 1.12 for FC St. Pauli against 1.37 for 1. FC Nürnberg — a clear edge to 1. FC Nürnberg on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 9%

This season

Season records for FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg
FC St. Pauli		1. FC Nürnberg
11	Played	11
2-6-3	W-D-L	7-3-1
1.09	Pts / game	2.18
1.18	Goals for / game	2.36
1.45	Goals against / game	1.18
45%	Over 2.5	64%
73%	BTTS	64%
27%	Clean sheets	27%
9%	Failed to score	9%
2-1-2	Home record	4-1-1
0-5-1	Away record	3-2-0
L2	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC St. Pauli · 1. FC Nürnberg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.4	Shots	21.4
4.8	Shots on target	7.0
5.2	Corners	7.4
2.60	Cards	2.00
13.8	Fouls	11.2
53	Possession %	60
1.80	xG	1.82
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.4	Shots	16.4
4.4	Shots on target	6.0
3.8	Corners	3.6
2.60	Cards	3.00
12.4	Fouls	14.2
47	Possession %	40
1.45	xG	2.33
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC St. Pauli	Metric	1. FC Nürnberg
1.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.13	Expected goals (xG)	1.67 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
13.25	Total shots	19.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.50	Corners	6.25 (better)
49.5	Possession %	58.5 (better)
462	Passes	513 (better)
	Tackles
10.75	Fouls	10.75
3.00	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.33	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC St. Pauli wins: 0
Draws: 0
1. FC Nürnberg wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

FC St. Pauli v 1. FC Nürnberg1–32026-11-01

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5