FC ST. Gallen won 4 of the last 5WWLWW4th2–1Servette FC won 2 of the last 5DLWWL6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC ST. Gallen
Servette FC
16
Shots
13
6
Shots on target
6
2
Corners
4
15
Fouls
21
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
1
315
Passes
521
38%
Possession %
62%
1.86
xG
1.17
37%
24%
39%
1 · FC ST. GallenXServette FC · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Servette FC 39%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.63
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
35.6%
2.81
2.62 William Hill
38.2%
-2.6
Match result
FC ST. Gallen
36.7%
2.73
1.82 Dafabet
54.9%
-18.2
Match result
Draw
24.4%
4.10
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+0.6
Match result
Servette FC
38.9%
2.57
4.00 William Hill
25.0%
+13.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.6%
1.20
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-0.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.4%
6.10
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-1.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
62.3%
1.60
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+0.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
37.7%
2.65
2.62 Betano
38.2%
-0.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
40.1%
2.50
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+0.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
59.9%
1.67
1.53 Betano
65.4%
-5.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.4%
1.55
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+2.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC ST. Gallen v Servette FC: too close to call
Our model makes FC ST. Gallen 37% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Servette FC at 39%. The goal projection is 1.58 for FC ST. Gallen against 1.63 for Servette FC — almost nothing to Servette FC on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC ST. Gallen
Metric
Servette FC
2.00
Goals scored
2.80 (better)
1.60
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.60 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.17
—
Big chances *
—
6.33 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
20.00 (better)
Total shots
12.33
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00 (better)
Corners
5.33
41.7 (better)
Possession %
37.7
310 (better)
Passes
308
—
Tackles
—
18.00
Fouls
11.67 (better)
3.67
Offsides
1.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33 (better)
Yellow cards
3.67
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC ST. Gallen v 
Servette FC