FC Sion v Lausanne

3rd1–012th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Sion		Lausanne
16	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	7
10	Fouls	18
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
559	Passes	396
57%	Possession %	43%
2.11	xG	1.21

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: FC Sion 61%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.05 – 1.01

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.8%	2.45	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.8%	2.72	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-8.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.2%	1.58	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	+6.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.0%	1.78	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-7.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.0%	2.27	2.40 William Hill	41.7%	+2.3
Match result	FC Sion	60.9%	1.64	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-4.9
Match result	Draw	21.7%	4.61	4.80 Dafabet	20.8%	+0.8
Match result	Lausanne	17.4%	5.74	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.6%	1.23	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.4%	5.42	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.2%	1.69	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-7.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Sion favoured against Lausanne

Our model makes FC Sion 61% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Lausanne at 17%. The goal projection is 2.05 for FC Sion against 1.01 for Lausanne — a commanding edge to FC Sion on expected output. A combined 3.07 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. FC Sion is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 10%; 1-0 9%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for FC Sion and Lausanne
FC Sion		Lausanne
13	Played	13
8-2-3	W-D-L	1-4-8
2.00	Pts / game	0.54
2.23	Goals for / game	0.92
1.38	Goals against / game	1.77
77%	Over 2.5	38%
62%	BTTS	46%
31%	Clean sheets	15%
8%	Failed to score	46%
4-1-1	Home record	0-2-4
4-1-2	Away record	1-2-4
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Sion · Lausanne

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	13.2
3.5	Shots on target	4.4
4.0	Corners	7.8
1.50	Cards	2.80
7.5	Fouls	14.8
53	Possession %	49
2.07	xG	1.35
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	15.8
3.8	Shots on target	4.8
5.5	Corners	4.8
3.00	Cards	2.20
15.5	Fouls	12.4
47	Possession %	51
1.55	xG	2.05
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Sion	Metric	Lausanne
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.20
2.60	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.67 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.83
	Big chances
3.50	Shots on target	3.60 (better)
14.00 (better)	Total shots	10.20
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	5.20 (better)
55.0 (better)	Possession %	46.4
465 (better)	Passes	376
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	15.40
1.50 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.50	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Sion wins: 2
Draws: 2
Lausanne wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 25%

FC Sion v Lausanne1–02026-10-25
FC Sion v Lausanne3–02026-04-12
Lausanne v FC Sion2–22025-11-09
FC Sion v Lausanne0–02025-09-28

Swiss Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Lugano	13	11	1	1	+21	34	FC Lugano won 4 of the last 5
2	BSC Young Boys	13	8	4	1	+16	28	BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	+11	26	FC Sion won 2 of the last 5
4	FC ST. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+2	22	FC ST. Gallen won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Zurich	13	6	3	4	-1	21	FC Zurich won 3 of the last 5
6	Servette FC	13	5	2	6	+1	17	Servette FC won 2 of the last 5
7	FC Basel 1893	13	4	3	6	-4	15	FC Basel 1893 won 0 of the last 5
8	FC Thun	13	4	2	7	-10	14	FC Thun won 2 of the last 5
9	FC Luzern	13	3	4	6	-7	13	FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5
10	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-13	11	Grasshoppers won 0 of the last 5
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	-5	10	FC Vaduz won 1 of the last 5
12	Lausanne	13	1	4	8	-11	7	Lausanne won 0 of the last 5