FC Luzern v FC Sion

9th1–13rd

19:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Luzern		FC Sion
9	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	4
23	Fouls	7
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
439	Passes	486
48%	Possession %	52%
0.72	xG	3.15

Over 1.5: 91%
Over 2.5: 75%
Over 3.5: 56%
Both score: 73%

Model pick: FC Sion 51%
Likely score: 1-2 8%
Expected goals: 1.68 – 2.26

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Luzern	28.4%	3.52	2.70 Betano	37.0%	-8.7
Match result	Draw	20.8%	4.80	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-3.0
Match result	FC Sion	50.8%	1.97	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+11.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.8%	1.10	1.11 Bet365	90.1%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	9.2%	10.86	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	-3.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	75.4%	1.33	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	+1.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	24.6%	4.06	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	55.5%	1.80	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	44.5%	2.25	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	73.3%	1.36	1.35 William Hill	74.1%	-0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	26.7%	3.74	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Sion favoured against FC Luzern

Our model makes FC Luzern 28% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 21% and FC Sion at 51%. The goal projection is 1.68 for FC Luzern against 2.26 for FC Sion — a substantial edge to FC Sion on expected output. A combined 3.94 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 8%; 1-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 6%; 2-1 6%

This season

Season records for FC Luzern and FC Sion
FC Luzern		FC Sion
13	Played	13
3-4-6	W-D-L	8-2-3
1.00	Pts / game	2.00
1.62	Goals for / game	2.23
2.15	Goals against / game	1.38
77%	Over 2.5	77%
77%	BTTS	62%
8%	Clean sheets	31%
15%	Failed to score	8%
3-1-3	Home record	4-1-1
0-3-3	Away record	4-1-2
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Luzern · FC Sion

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	14.0
4.5	Shots on target	3.5
6.0	Corners	4.0
2.00	Cards	1.50
14.3	Fouls	7.5
48	Possession %	53
1.67	xG	2.07
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	15.0
5.8	Shots on target	3.8
4.5	Corners	5.5
2.00	Cards	3.00
10.3	Fouls	15.5
52	Possession %	47
2.36	xG	1.55
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Luzern	Metric	FC Sion
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
2.60	Goals conceded	2.60
2.35 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.67
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.50
19.00 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	5.00
47.0	Possession %	55.0 (better)
392	Passes	465 (better)
	Tackles
11.67	Fouls	10.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Luzern wins: 0
Draws: 4
FC Sion wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.60
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 60%

FC Luzern v FC Sion1–12026-10-31
FC Sion v FC Luzern3–02026-08-02
FC Sion v FC Luzern0–02026-02-07
FC Sion v FC Luzern1–12026-01-24
FC Luzern v FC Sion3–32025-10-04

Swiss Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Lugano	13	11	1	1	+21	34	FC Lugano won 4 of the last 5
2	BSC Young Boys	13	8	4	1	+16	28	BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	+11	26	FC Sion won 2 of the last 5
4	FC ST. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+2	22	FC ST. Gallen won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Zurich	13	6	3	4	-1	21	FC Zurich won 3 of the last 5
6	Servette FC	13	5	2	6	+1	17	Servette FC won 2 of the last 5
7	FC Basel 1893	13	4	3	6	-4	15	FC Basel 1893 won 0 of the last 5
8	FC Thun	13	4	2	7	-10	14	FC Thun won 2 of the last 5
9	FC Luzern	13	3	4	6	-7	13	FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5
10	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-13	11	Grasshoppers won 0 of the last 5
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	-5	10	FC Vaduz won 1 of the last 5
12	Lausanne	13	1	4	8	-11	7	Lausanne won 0 of the last 5