FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5LDLLW9th2–3BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5WLWWW2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Luzern
BSC Young Boys
19
Shots
16
7
Shots on target
8
5
Corners
4
12
Fouls
16
3
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
5
Offsides
1
346
Passes
379
48%
Possession %
52%
2.17
xG
1.87
27%
19%
55%
1 · FC LuzernXBSC Young Boys · 2
Over 1.5
95%
Over 2.5
84%
Over 3.5
67%
Both score
80%
Model pick
BSC Young Boys 55%
Likely score
1-2 7%
Expected goals
1.90 – 2.69
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Luzern
26.6%
3.75
3.65 Dafabet
27.4%
-0.8
Match result
Draw
18.6%
5.38
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-3.6
Match result
BSC Young Boys
54.8%
1.83
2.07 Dafabet
48.3%
+6.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
94.6%
1.06
1.09 Betano
91.7%
+2.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
5.4%
18.45
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
-5.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
83.6%
1.20
1.30 Bet365
76.9%
+6.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
16.4%
6.11
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-8.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
67.3%
1.49
1.75 Betano
57.1%
+10.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
32.7%
3.05
2.22 Betano
45.0%
-12.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
79.5%
1.26
1.30 Bet365
76.9%
+2.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
20.5%
4.88
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-8.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
BSC Young Boys favoured against FC Luzern
Our model makes FC Luzern 27% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 19% and BSC Young Boys at 55%. The goal projection is 1.90 for FC Luzern against 2.69 for BSC Young Boys — a substantial edge to BSC Young Boys on expected output. A combined 4.59 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 84% and both teams to score at 80%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Luzern
Metric
BSC Young Boys
1.80
Goals scored
2.80 (better)
2.20
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
2.76 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
2.23
—
Big chances *
—
7.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.67
22.00 (better)
Total shots
20.33
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00
Corners
7.67 (better)
50.7
Possession %
57.0 (better)
425
Passes
482 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.67 (better)
Fouls
13.00
1.67 (better)
Offsides
2.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.67 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Luzern v 
BSC Young Boys