FC Lugano won 4 of the last 5LWWWW1st2–1FC Basel 1893 won 0 of the last 5DLDLL7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Lugano
FC Basel 1893
12
Shots
21
7
Shots on target
5
6
Corners
6
12
Fouls
13
3
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
326
Passes
546
37%
Possession %
63%
0.97
xG
0.95
69%
18%
13%
1 · FC LuganoXFC Basel 1893 · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
46%
Both score
59%
Model pick
FC Lugano 69%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.01
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Lugano
68.9%
1.45
1.59 Dafabet
62.9%
+6.0
Match result
Draw
17.9%
5.59
4.80 Dafabet
20.8%
-2.9
Match result
FC Basel 1893
13.2%
7.57
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-5.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.6%
1.15
1.14 Betano
87.7%
-1.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.4%
7.47
6.50 Betfair
15.4%
-2.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
67.6%
1.48
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-1.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
32.4%
3.09
2.75 Betfair
36.4%
-4.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
46.0%
2.17
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-1.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
54.0%
1.85
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.7%
1.70
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-6.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.3%
2.42
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+2.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Lugano favoured against FC Basel 1893
Our model makes FC Lugano 69% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 18% and FC Basel 1893 at 13%. The goal projection is 2.47 for FC Lugano against 1.01 for FC Basel 1893 — a commanding edge to FC Lugano on expected output. A combined 3.48 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. FC Lugano is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Lugano
Metric
FC Basel 1893
3.40 (better)
Goals scored
2.20
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
3.00
2.26 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.35
—
Big chances *
—
6.33 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
15.67 (better)
Total shots
13.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.33
47.0
Possession %
57.7 (better)
431
Passes
465 (better)
—
Tackles
—
14.33
Fouls
14.33
1.33
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.33
Yellow cards
2.33 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Lugano v 
FC Basel 1893