FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers

7th0–010th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Basel 1893		Grasshoppers
17	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	4
18	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	4
496	Passes	352
59%	Possession %	41%
1.15	xG	1.13

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: FC Basel 1893 49%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.86 – 1.36

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

FC Basel 1893 -0.75

1.75Bet365 · fair 1.59 · qualifies at 1.64+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back FC Basel 1893 -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Bet365 — FC Basel 1893 must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 76%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.59. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 10.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Basel 1893 1.86, Grasshoppers 1.36.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Basel 1893	48.8%	2.05	1.73 Dafabet	57.8%	-9.0
Match result	Draw	23.6%	4.23	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+1.9
Match result	Grasshoppers	27.5%	3.63	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.6%	1.20	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.4%	6.09	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	+2.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.3%	1.60	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-7.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.7%	2.65	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+5.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.1%	2.49	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-9.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.9%	1.67	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.2%	1.58	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-4.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.8%	2.72	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	+2.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Basel 1893 favoured against Grasshoppers

Our model makes FC Basel 1893 49% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Grasshoppers at 28%. The goal projection is 1.86 for FC Basel 1893 against 1.36 for Grasshoppers — a substantial edge to FC Basel 1893 on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 7%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for FC Basel 1893 and Grasshoppers
FC Basel 1893		Grasshoppers
13	Played	13
4-3-6	W-D-L	2-5-6
1.15	Pts / game	0.85
1.62	Goals for / game	1.23
1.92	Goals against / game	2.23
77%	Over 2.5	54%
69%	BTTS	69%
15%	Clean sheets	23%
23%	Failed to score	15%
1-1-4	Home record	1-3-3
3-2-2	Away record	1-2-3
D1	Streak	D3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Basel 1893 · Grasshoppers

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.4	Shots	12.8
3.6	Shots on target	4.3
5.2	Corners	4.3
2.60	Cards	1.50
14.4	Fouls	10.8
59	Possession %	40
1.21	xG	1.42
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.8	Shots	20.5
6.0	Shots on target	5.0
4.4	Corners	7.5
1.80	Cards	2.25
15.8	Fouls	14.8
41	Possession %	60
1.66	xG	1.96
5 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Basel 1893	Metric	Grasshoppers
2.20	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
3.00	Goals conceded	2.20 (better)
1.35 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.08
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.50 (better)
13.00	Total shots	14.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.33	Corners	5.50 (better)
57.7 (better)	Possession %	46.5
465 (better)	Passes	393
	Tackles
14.33	Fouls	8.50 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Basel 1893 wins: 2
Draws: 2
Grasshoppers wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 25%
Both score: 50%

FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers0–02026-10-25
FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers1–02026-03-05
Grasshoppers v FC Basel 18931–12025-11-23
FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers2–12025-08-02

Swiss Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Lugano	13	11	1	1	+21	34	FC Lugano won 4 of the last 5
2	BSC Young Boys	13	8	4	1	+16	28	BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	+11	26	FC Sion won 2 of the last 5
4	FC ST. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+2	22	FC ST. Gallen won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Zurich	13	6	3	4	-1	21	FC Zurich won 3 of the last 5
6	Servette FC	13	5	2	6	+1	17	Servette FC won 2 of the last 5
7	FC Basel 1893	13	4	3	6	-4	15	FC Basel 1893 won 0 of the last 5
8	FC Thun	13	4	2	7	-10	14	FC Thun won 2 of the last 5
9	FC Luzern	13	3	4	6	-7	13	FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5
10	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-13	11	Grasshoppers won 0 of the last 5
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	-5	10	FC Vaduz won 1 of the last 5
12	Lausanne	13	1	4	8	-11	7	Lausanne won 0 of the last 5