Everton v 
Newcastle
Match statistics
| Everton | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 28 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 333 | Passes | 429 |
| 44% | Possession % | 56% |
| 1.88 | xG | 2.12 |
- Over 1.5
- 89%
- Over 2.5
- 72%
- Over 3.5
- 51%
- Both score
- 71%
- Model pick
- Newcastle 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.70 – 2.01
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Newcastle
Why this price?
Back Newcastle to win at 2.98 with Marathonbet.
Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.67. The offered 2.98 implies only 34%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.47 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Everton 1.70, Newcastle 2.01.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Everton | 32.7% | 3.06 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | -9.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | -5.2 |
| Match result | Newcastle | 45.2% | 2.21 | 3.15 Dafabet | 31.7% | +13.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 88.9% | 1.13 | 1.30 Bet365 | 76.9% | +12.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 11.1% | 9.00 | 4.50 Bet365 | 22.2% | -11.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +21.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | 2.25 Bet365 | 44.4% | -16.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | +17.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -17.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 71.2% | 1.41 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +11.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 28.8% | 3.47 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | -11.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Newcastle favoured against Everton
Our model makes Everton 33% to win this EFL Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Newcastle at 45%. The goal projection is 1.70 for Everton against 2.01 for Newcastle — a clear edge to Newcastle on expected output. A combined 3.71 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-1 7%
- 1-3 6%
This season
| Everton | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 4-4-2 | W-D-L | 3-3-4 |
| 1.60 | Pts / game | 1.20 |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 1.30 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 1.60 |
| 30% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 40% | BTTS | 60% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 3-1-1 | Home record | 1-2-2 |
| 1-3-1 | Away record | 2-1-2 |
| W2 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Everton · Newcastle
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.3 | Shots | 14.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 2.67 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 49 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.64 | xG | 1.35 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 17.1 | Shots | 14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 6.6 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.62 | Cards | 2.25 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.57 | xG | 1.69 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Everton | Metric | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 1.37 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.60 | Shots on target | 4.60 |
| 14.00 | Total shots | 15.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.40 | Corners | 6.80 (better) |
| 52.8 | Possession % | 56.8 (better) |
| 506 (better) | Passes | 476 |
| Tackles | ||
| 7.80 (better) | Fouls | 10.60 |
| 2.40 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Everton wins
- 3
- Draws
- 0
- Newcastle wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.75
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 75%
- Newcastle v Everton0–12026-11-02
- Everton v Newcastle3–12026-10-29
- Newcastle v Everton2–32026-02-28
- Everton v Newcastle1–42025-11-29