Energie Cottbus v VfL Bochum

12th1–28th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Energie Cottbus		VfL Bochum
14	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	4
2	Fouls	19
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
517	Passes	414
55%	Possession %	45%
1.41	xG	1.32

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Energie Cottbus 44%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.37

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Energie Cottbus 0

2.25Marathonbet · fair 2.08 · qualifies at 2.14+ · 1.67u

Why this price?

Back Energie Cottbus 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Marathonbet — Energie Cottbus to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 59% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.08. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 8.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.67 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.67, VfL Bochum 1.37.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Energie Cottbus	44.1%	2.27	3.05 Betano	32.8%	+11.4
Match result	Draw	24.9%	4.01	3.85 Betano	26.0%	-1.0
Match result	VfL Bochum	30.9%	3.23	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-11.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.1%	1.23	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.9%	5.30	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	+2.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.5%	1.71	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-8.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.5%	2.41	2.75 Betano	36.4%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.1%	2.77	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-8.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.9%	1.56	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.0%	1.64	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.0%	2.56	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+4.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Energie Cottbus favoured against VfL Bochum

Our model makes Energie Cottbus 44% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 25% and VfL Bochum at 31%. The goal projection is 1.67 for Energie Cottbus against 1.37 for VfL Bochum — a clear edge to Energie Cottbus on expected output. A combined 3.04 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 1-0 7%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus		VfL Bochum
11	Played	11
2-5-4	W-D-L	4-2-5
1.00	Pts / game	1.27
1.64	Goals for / game	1.00
1.82	Goals against / game	1.18
64%	Over 2.5	36%
73%	BTTS	55%
18%	Clean sheets	9%
18%	Failed to score	36%
1-2-2	Home record	1-2-3
1-3-2	Away record	3-0-2
D1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Energie Cottbus · VfL Bochum

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0	Shots	17.3
4.2	Shots on target	5.7
4.2	Corners	5.8
2.00	Cards	2.00
8.8	Fouls	13.2
49	Possession %	52
1.19	xG	1.42
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.0	Shots	13.5
5.0	Shots on target	4.3
7.8	Corners	4.2
2.40	Cards	1.83
12.6	Fouls	8.5
51	Possession %	48
1.73	xG	1.55
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Energie Cottbus	Metric	VfL Bochum
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.60 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.14
	Big chances
6.50 (better)	Shots on target	4.75
15.75	Total shots	15.75
	Touches in opp. box
6.75 (better)	Corners	6.25
51.8	Possession %	56.0 (better)
440	Passes	492 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	9.25 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Energie Cottbus wins: 0
Draws: 0
VfL Bochum wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Energie Cottbus v VfL Bochum1–22026-10-30

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5