Eintracht Braunschweig v Energie Cottbus

13th0–012th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		Energie Cottbus
9	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	2
5	Corners	4
14	Fouls	16
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
372	Passes	446
46%	Possession %	54%
0.78	xG	0.56

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Eintracht Braunschweig 45%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.60

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Eintracht Braunschweig -0.5

1.90Betano · fair 1.75 · qualifies at 1.80+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Eintracht Braunschweig -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.90 with Betano — Eintracht Braunschweig must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.75. The offered 1.90 implies only 53%, so the price is 8.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.89, Energie Cottbus 1.60.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Eintracht Braunschweig	44.6%	2.24	2.00 Betano	50.0%	-5.4
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.35	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	-1.4
Match result	Energie Cottbus	32.4%	3.09	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.8%	1.15	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.2%	7.55	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-2.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.7%	1.48	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.3%	3.10	2.77 Betano	36.1%	-3.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.1%	2.17	2.20 Betano	45.5%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.9%	1.86	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.2%	1.47	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.8%	3.14	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-2.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eintracht Braunschweig favoured against Energie Cottbus

Our model makes Eintracht Braunschweig 45% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and Energie Cottbus at 32%. The goal projection is 1.89 for Eintracht Braunschweig against 1.60 for Energie Cottbus — a clear edge to Eintracht Braunschweig on expected output. A combined 3.49 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Eintracht Braunschweig and Energie Cottbus
Eintracht Braunschweig		Energie Cottbus
11	Played	11
3-2-6	W-D-L	2-5-4
1.00	Pts / game	1.00
1.45	Goals for / game	1.64
1.64	Goals against / game	1.82
45%	Over 2.5	64%
45%	BTTS	73%
27%	Clean sheets	18%
36%	Failed to score	18%
2-2-2	Home record	1-2-2
1-0-4	Away record	1-3-2
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Eintracht Braunschweig · Energie Cottbus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.2	Shots	11.0
2.8	Shots on target	4.2
5.6	Corners	4.2
1.60	Cards	2.00
11.8	Fouls	8.8
47	Possession %	49
1.04	xG	1.19
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.6	Shots	18.0
3.4	Shots on target	5.0
4.0	Corners	7.8
2.00	Cards	2.40
13.8	Fouls	12.6
53	Possession %	51
0.97	xG	1.73
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Eintracht Braunschweig	Metric	Energie Cottbus
0.60	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.28 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.27
	Big chances
3.75	Shots on target	4.75 (better)
14.50 (better)	Total shots	11.25
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	5.25
45.3	Possession %	51.8 (better)
368	Passes	436 (better)
	Tackles
10.50	Fouls	9.75 (better)
3.00	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Eintracht Braunschweig wins: 0
Draws: 1
Energie Cottbus wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Eintracht Braunschweig v Energie Cottbus0–02026-11-06

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5