Dynamo Dresden v 
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Match statistics
| Dynamo Dresden | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 572 | Passes | 519 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 1.92 | xG | 1.22 |
- Over 1.5
- 85%
- Over 2.5
- 65%
- Over 3.5
- 43%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Dynamo Dresden 56%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.09 – 1.25
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5SpVgg Greuther Fürth +0.25
Why this price?
Back SpVgg Greuther Fürth +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.25 with BetVictor — SpVgg Greuther Fürth starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.93. The offered 3.25 implies only 31%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.20 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Dynamo Dresden 2.09, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.25.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dynamo Dresden | 56.2% | 1.78 | 2.10 Betano | 47.6% | +8.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 21.9% | 4.57 | 3.95 Dafabet | 25.3% | -3.4 |
| Match result | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 21.9% | 4.56 | 3.75 Dafabet | 26.7% | -4.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | +3.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 15.0% | 6.66 | 5.00 Betano | 20.0% | -5.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | +5.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.65 Betano | 37.7% | +4.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | -5.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.67 Betfair | 59.9% | +3.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.40 William Hill | 41.7% | -4.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Dynamo Dresden favoured against SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Our model makes Dynamo Dresden 56% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 22%. The goal projection is 2.09 for Dynamo Dresden against 1.25 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a substantial edge to Dynamo Dresden on expected output. A combined 3.33 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 3-1 7%
This season
| Dynamo Dresden | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 3-2-6 | W-D-L | 3-3-5 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.09 |
| 1.36 | Goals for / game | 1.18 |
| 1.82 | Goals against / game | 1.73 |
| 73% | Over 2.5 | 45% |
| 55% | BTTS | 55% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 3-0-2 | Home record | 2-1-2 |
| 0-2-4 | Away record | 1-2-3 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dynamo Dresden · SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.2 | Shots | 14.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 3.2 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 8.6 |
| 1.85 | Cards | 0.45 |
| 8.2 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.60 | xG | 0.88 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 17.0 | Shots | 15.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.45 | Cards | 1.20 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 9.4 |
| 49 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.54 | xG | 1.77 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Dynamo Dresden | Metric | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 1.35 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.74 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.50 (better) | Shots on target | 3.25 |
| 11.50 | Total shots | 12.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.25 | Corners | 7.00 (better) |
| 53.0 (better) | Possession % | 51.5 |
| 552 (better) | Passes | 470 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.00 | Fouls | 7.75 (better) |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Dynamo Dresden wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- Dynamo Dresden v SpVgg Greuther Fürth3–02026-11-06
- Dynamo Dresden v SpVgg Greuther Fürth2–02026-01-17
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Dynamo Dresden3–22025-08-03
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | +16 | 31 | Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +13 | 24 | 1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 21 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +11 | 20 | 1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 19 | VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 | 1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 | VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 | FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hannover 96 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 | Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 | VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 | Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 | Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 | SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 8 | Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5 |