Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg

15th2–04th

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Dynamo Dresden		1. FC Magdeburg
12	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	0
8	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	0
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	1
440	Passes	659
40%	Possession %	60%
2.05	xG	0.87

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: Dynamo Dresden 41%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.82

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

1. FC Magdeburg +0.25

2.17Marathonbet · fair 1.96 · qualifies at 2.02+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back 1. FC Magdeburg +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.17 with Marathonbet — 1. FC Magdeburg starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.96. The offered 2.17 implies only 46%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.93, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.82.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Dynamo Dresden	41.0%	2.44	2.55 Betano	39.2%	+1.8
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.46	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-3.2
Match result	1. FC Magdeburg	36.6%	2.73	2.65 Dafabet	37.7%	-1.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.3%	1.12	1.17 Betano	85.5%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.7%	9.30	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-7.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	72.2%	1.39	1.55 BetVictor	64.5%	+7.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	27.8%	3.59	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-10.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	51.5%	1.94	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+7.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	48.5%	2.06	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-11.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	72.0%	1.39	1.50 William Hill	66.7%	+5.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	28.0%	3.57	2.72 Betano	36.8%	-8.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg: too close to call

Our model makes Dynamo Dresden 41% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and 1. FC Magdeburg at 37%. The goal projection is 1.93 for Dynamo Dresden against 1.82 for 1. FC Magdeburg — a slight edge to Dynamo Dresden on expected output. A combined 3.74 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Magdeburg
Dynamo Dresden		1. FC Magdeburg
11	Played	11
3-2-6	W-D-L	6-2-3
1.00	Pts / game	1.82
1.36	Goals for / game	2.27
1.82	Goals against / game	1.27
73%	Over 2.5	64%
55%	BTTS	55%
27%	Clean sheets	36%
18%	Failed to score	9%
3-0-2	Home record	5-0-1
0-2-4	Away record	1-2-2
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dynamo Dresden · 1. FC Magdeburg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	14.2
3.8	Shots on target	5.6
5.8	Corners	4.2
1.85	Cards	1.80
8.2	Fouls	8.4
51	Possession %	56
1.60	xG	1.76
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	13.2
4.8	Shots on target	4.0
4.8	Corners	5.6
2.45	Cards	2.25
9.8	Fouls	12.4
49	Possession %	44
1.54	xG	1.26
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dynamo Dresden	Metric	1. FC Magdeburg
1.00	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.81	Expected goals (xG)	1.03 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
11.50	Total shots	15.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.25 (better)	Corners	5.60
54.3 (better)	Possession %	52.0
553 (better)	Passes	465
	Tackles
11.25	Fouls	10.00 (better)
2.33 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Dynamo Dresden wins: 2
Draws: 0
1. FC Magdeburg wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg2–02026-10-18
1. FC Magdeburg v Dynamo Dresden1–22026-01-24
Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg1–22025-08-09

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5