Czechia v England

0–2

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Czechia		England
6	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	7
1	Corners	6
9	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
343	Passes	669
34%	Possession %	66%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: England 44%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.28 – 1.59

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Czechia	30.3%	3.30	11.75 Betano	8.5%	+21.8
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.85	5.70 Betano	17.5%	+8.5
Match result	England	43.7%	2.29	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-32.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.7%	1.27	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-5.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.3%	4.70	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.7%	1.83	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.3%	2.21	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.3%	3.09	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-2.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.7%	1.48	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.2%	1.72	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+9.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.8%	2.39	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-12.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

England favoured against Czechia

Our model makes Czechia 30% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 26% and England at 44%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Czechia against 1.59 for England — a clear edge to England on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 7%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Czechia and England
Czechia		England
4	Played	4
0-0-4	W-D-L	3-0-1
0.00	Pts / game	2.25
0.50	Goals for / game	3.50
2.50	Goals against / game	0.75
75%	Over 2.5	75%
50%	BTTS	25%
0%	Clean sheets	75%
50%	Failed to score	0%
0-0-2	Home record	1-0-1
0-0-2	Away record	2-0-0
L4	Streak	W3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Czechia · England

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
5.3	Shots	17.8
1.5	Shots on target	6.3
1.0	Corners	6.0
2.67	Cards	1.25
11.3	Fouls	9.8
36	Possession %	60
0.17	xG	2.05
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.3	Shots	9.5
6.3	Shots on target	2.0
5.8	Corners	1.8
1.00	Cards	1.08
10.5	Fouls	13.0
64	Possession %	40
2.05	xG	0.17
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Czechia	Metric	England
1.20	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
0.79	Expected goals (xG)	1.43 (better)
	Big chances
2.50	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
9.75	Total shots	11.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	3.40
43.0	Possession %	44.4 (better)
379	Passes	430 (better)
	Tackles
10.75	Fouls	9.00 (better)
2.75	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Czechia wins: 0
Draws: 0
England wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 0%

England v Czechia3–02026-10-06
Czechia v England0–22026-09-29