Congo DR v Uganda

0–2

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Congo DR		Uganda
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Yellow cards	—
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Congo DR 39%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.8%	4.59	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-15.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.9%	1.85	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+11.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.1%	2.17	1.57 Betfair	63.7%	-17.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.6%	3.16	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+11.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.4%	1.46	1.20 Betfair	83.3%	-15.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.1%	1.72	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+14.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.9%	2.39	1.60 Betfair	62.5%	-20.6
Match result	Congo DR	38.7%	2.58	1.62 Betfair	61.7%	-23.0
Match result	Draw	26.5%	3.78	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-1.3
Match result	Uganda	34.8%	2.87	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+14.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.2%	1.28	1.45 BetVictor	69.0%	+9.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Congo DR v Uganda: too close to call

Our model makes Congo DR 39% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 26% and Uganda at 35%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Congo DR against 1.38 for Uganda — almost nothing to Congo DR on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Congo DR and Uganda
Congo DR		Uganda
5	Played	2
1-2-2	W-D-L	1-1-0
1.00	Pts / game	2.00
0.80	Goals for / game	1.50
1.00	Goals against / game	0.50
20%	Over 2.5	0%
40%	BTTS	50%
40%	Clean sheets	50%
40%	Failed to score	0%
1-1-2	Home record	0-1-0
0-1-0	Away record	1-0-0
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Congo DR · Uganda

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Congo DR	Metric	Uganda
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.67
1.12	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
2.40	Shots on target	3.33 (better)
12.25 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
3.25	Corners	4.67 (better)
52.6 (better)	Possession %	42.7
355 (better)	Passes	348
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	11.33
2.00	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Congo DR wins: 0
Draws: 1
Uganda wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 50%

Uganda v Congo DR1–12026-10-05
Congo DR v Uganda0–22026-10-02