Canada v Peru

2–0

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Canada		Peru
17	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	0
6	Corners	5
27	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	3
497	Passes	320
61%	Possession %	39%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Canada 51%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.22

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Canada	50.6%	1.98	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-13.1
Match result	Draw	24.3%	4.11	4.20 Bet365	23.8%	+0.5
Match result	Peru	25.0%	4.00	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+8.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.1%	1.23	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+5.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.9%	5.30	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-8.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.3%	1.72	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+8.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.7%	2.40	1.87 Betano	53.5%	-11.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.9%	2.79	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+6.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.1%	1.56	1.33 Betano	75.2%	-11.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.5%	1.68	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+11.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.5%	2.47	1.83 William Hill	54.6%	-14.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Canada favoured against Peru

Our model makes Canada 51% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 24% and Peru at 25%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Canada against 1.22 for Peru — a substantial edge to Canada on expected output. A combined 3.03 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Canada and Peru
Canada		Peru
8	Played	8
4-3-1	W-D-L	1-2-5
1.88	Pts / game	0.63
1.13	Goals for / game	0.88
0.50	Goals against / game	2.13
13%	Over 2.5	50%
25%	BTTS	63%
63%	Clean sheets	0%
25%	Failed to score	38%
4-3-0	Home record	0-1-1
0-0-1	Away record	1-1-4
L1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Canada · Peru

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.7	Shots	3.3
3.0	Shots on target	1.0
5.3	Corners	3.0
1.00	Cards	3.33
18.0	Fouls	10.8
54	Possession %	34
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
4.0	Shots	9.3
1.0	Shots on target	3.3
3.7	Corners	4.7
2.67	Cards	1.00
14.7	Fouls	13.5
46	Possession %	67
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Canada	Metric	Peru
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
2.11	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.75
14.40 (better)	Total shots	7.50
	Touches in opp. box
8.60 (better)	Corners	4.00
52.8 (better)	Possession %	45.8
369	Passes	402 (better)
	Tackles
13.60 (better)	Fouls	14.25
1.20 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Canada wins: 1
Draws: 0
Peru wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Canada v Peru2–02026-10-03