Cambridge United v Wycombe

8th2–213th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cambridge United		Wycombe
12	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
12	Corners	9
8	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
356	Passes	325
52%	Possession %	48%
0.82	xG	1.28

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Cambridge United 58%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.98 – 1.08

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Cambridge United

2.22Dafabet · fair 2.07 · qualifies at 2.13+ · 1.53u

Why this price?

Back Cambridge United to win at 2.22 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.07. The offered 2.22 implies only 45%, so the price is 7.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.53 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cambridge United 1.98, Wycombe 1.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cambridge United	57.8%	1.73	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	+19.4
Match result	Draw	22.5%	4.44	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-4.5
Match result	Wycombe	19.6%	5.09	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	-12.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.4%	1.23	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+8.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.6%	5.37	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.9%	1.70	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+12.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.1%	2.43	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-6.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.5%	2.74	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+9.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.5%	1.57	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.3%	1.75	1.60 Betfair	62.5%	-5.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.7%	2.34	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cambridge United favoured against Wycombe

Our model makes Cambridge United 58% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 23% and Wycombe at 20%. The goal projection is 1.98 for Cambridge United against 1.08 for Wycombe — a commanding edge to Cambridge United on expected output. A combined 3.06 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 9%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Cambridge United and Wycombe
Cambridge United		Wycombe
14	Played	13
5-6-3	W-D-L	4-6-3
1.50	Pts / game	1.38
1.50	Goals for / game	1.62
1.50	Goals against / game	1.77
64%	Over 2.5	54%
86%	BTTS	77%
7%	Clean sheets	23%
7%	Failed to score	0%
3-2-2	Home record	2-3-2
2-4-1	Away record	2-3-1
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cambridge United · Wycombe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.1	Shots	15.0
5.7	Shots on target	4.7
10.7	Corners	6.0
1.86	Cards	1.33
9.7	Fouls	12.5
54	Possession %	56
1.69	xG	1.55
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.1	Shots	12.2
3.7	Shots on target	4.0
5.7	Corners	6.7
2.43	Cards	1.67
11.6	Fouls	13.2
46	Possession %	45
1.61	xG	1.34
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cambridge United	Metric	Wycombe
1.80	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.75
1.45	Expected goals (xG)	1.94 (better)
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
16.20	Total shots	16.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)	Corners	4.75
52.6	Possession %	55.0 (better)
394	Passes	462 (better)
	Tackles
10.40	Fouls	9.00 (better)
1.50 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cambridge United wins: 0
Draws: 1
Wycombe wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Cambridge United v Wycombe2–22026-10-20

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5