Burton Albion v Bradford

15th0–07th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Burton Albion		Bradford
15	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	13
12	Fouls	17
4	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
346	Passes	389
47%	Possession %	53%
1.38	xG	1.45

Over 1.5: 64%
Over 2.5: 36%
Over 3.5: 17%
Both score: 44%

Model pick: Bradford 35%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.05 – 1.08

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Burton Albion

3.70Bet365 · fair 3.41 · qualifies at 3.52+ · 0.78u

Why this price?

Back Burton Albion to win at 3.70 with Bet365.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.41. The offered 3.70 implies only 27%, so the price is 8.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.78 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Burton Albion 1.05, Bradford 1.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	16.8%	5.95	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-9.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	83.2%	1.20	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	+8.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	43.7%	2.29	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	56.3%	1.78	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+8.7
Match result	Burton Albion	33.8%	2.96	4.75 Betfair	21.1%	+12.7
Match result	Draw	31.0%	3.23	3.70 Bet365	27.0%	+4.0
Match result	Bradford	35.2%	2.84	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-12.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	63.6%	1.57	1.34 BetVictor	74.6%	-11.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	36.4%	2.75	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+7.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	36.0%	2.78	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-11.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	64.0%	1.56	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	+11.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Burton Albion v Bradford: too close to call

Our model makes Burton Albion 34% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 31% and Bradford at 35%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Burton Albion against 1.08 for Bradford — almost nothing to Bradford on expected output. A combined 2.14 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 36% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-0 12%; 0-1 12%; 1-0 12%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Burton Albion and Bradford
Burton Albion		Bradford
14	Played	13
4-5-5	W-D-L	6-4-3
1.21	Pts / game	1.69
1.29	Goals for / game	0.77
1.50	Goals against / game	0.62
64%	Over 2.5	15%
64%	BTTS	15%
14%	Clean sheets	69%
29%	Failed to score	38%
2-4-1	Home record	3-1-2
2-1-4	Away record	3-3-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Burton Albion · Bradford

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	13.5
4.1	Shots on target	2.5
5.6	Corners	8.8
1.86	Cards	1.83
11.3	Fouls	16.5
50	Possession %	56
1.05	xG	1.39
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	13.2
4.0	Shots on target	2.7
7.1	Corners	4.7
1.86	Cards	2.33
11.6	Fouls	13.3
50	Possession %	44
1.35	xG	1.24
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Burton Albion	Metric	Bradford
0.60	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
0.53	Expected goals (xG)	0.80 (better)
	Big chances
2.40	Shots on target	3.20 (better)
11.60 (better)	Total shots	11.20
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	5.20 (better)
54.2 (better)	Possession %	50.6
433 (better)	Passes	388
	Tackles
9.80 (better)	Fouls	13.60
0.40 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Burton Albion wins: 2
Draws: 1
Bradford wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5