BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5WLWWW2nd3–5FC Zurich won 3 of the last 5DWWWD5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
BSC Young Boys
FC Zurich
16
Shots
16
7
Shots on target
10
8
Corners
6
16
Fouls
5
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
376
Passes
392
51%
Possession %
49%
2.10
xG
2.79
64%
17%
19%
1 · BSC Young BoysXFC Zurich · 2
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
82%
Over 3.5
64%
Both score
75%
Model pick
BSC Young Boys 64%
Likely score
2-1 8%
Expected goals
2.85 – 1.56
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
BSC Young Boys
64.0%
1.56
1.30 Bet365
76.9%
-12.9
Match result
Draw
17.2%
5.83
7.00 Bet365
14.3%
+2.9
Match result
FC Zurich
18.8%
5.32
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
+7.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
93.7%
1.07
1.06 Betano
94.3%
-0.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
6.3%
15.77
11.00 Bet365
9.1%
-2.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
81.5%
1.23
1.23 Betano
81.3%
+0.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
18.5%
5.41
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
-3.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
64.1%
1.56
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
+0.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
35.9%
2.79
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-3.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
74.6%
1.34
1.45 Betano
69.0%
+5.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
25.4%
3.94
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
-11.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
BSC Young Boys favoured against FC Zurich
Our model makes BSC Young Boys 64% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 17% and FC Zurich at 19%. The goal projection is 2.85 for BSC Young Boys against 1.56 for FC Zurich — a commanding edge to BSC Young Boys on expected output. A combined 4.40 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 82% and both teams to score at 75%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. BSC Young Boys is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
BSC Young Boys
Metric
FC Zurich
2.80 (better)
Goals scored
2.00
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
2.38 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.45
—
Big chances *
—
5.33 (better)
Shots on target
4.33
19.33 (better)
Total shots
14.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.33 (better)
Corners
5.67
52.0 (better)
Possession %
50.7
453 (better)
Passes
407
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
9.67 (better)
3.33
Offsides
2.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33
Yellow cards
0.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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BSC Young Boys v 
FC Zurich