BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5WLWWW2nd2–0FC ST. Gallen won 4 of the last 5WWLWW4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
BSC Young Boys
FC ST. Gallen
18
Shots
10
4
Shots on target
3
8
Corners
3
13
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
480
Passes
371
57%
Possession %
43%
1.94
xG
1.18
50%
20%
30%
1 · BSC Young BoysXFC ST. Gallen · 2
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
80%
Over 3.5
62%
Both score
77%
Model pick
BSC Young Boys 50%
Likely score
2-1 8%
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.87
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 3.5
38.3%
2.61
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
-6.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
77.2%
1.29
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
+2.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
22.8%
4.38
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-5.8
Match result
BSC Young Boys
49.7%
2.01
1.83 Dafabet
54.6%
-4.9
Match result
Draw
20.1%
4.99
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-2.2
Match result
FC ST. Gallen
30.2%
3.31
3.70 Bet365
27.0%
+3.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
92.9%
1.08
1.09 Betano
91.7%
+1.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
7.1%
14.12
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
-4.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
79.8%
1.25
1.29 Betano
77.5%
+2.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
20.2%
4.96
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-4.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
61.7%
1.62
1.70 Betano
58.8%
+2.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
BSC Young Boys favoured against FC ST. Gallen
Our model makes BSC Young Boys 50% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 20% and FC ST. Gallen at 30%. The goal projection is 2.40 for BSC Young Boys against 1.87 for FC ST. Gallen — a substantial edge to BSC Young Boys on expected output. A combined 4.27 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 80% and both teams to score at 77%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
1-1 7%
3-1 6%
1-2 6%
This season
Season records for BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
BSC Young Boys
Metric
FC ST. Gallen
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
2.00
1.60
Goals conceded
1.60
2.63 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.60
—
Big chances *
—
6.25
Shots on target
6.33 (better)
21.25 (better)
Total shots
20.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.75
Corners
7.00 (better)
52.3 (better)
Possession %
41.7
442 (better)
Passes
310
—
Tackles
—
12.75 (better)
Fouls
18.00
2.75 (better)
Offsides
3.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.75
Yellow cards
2.33 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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BSC Young Boys v 
FC ST. Gallen