Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons

19th2–012th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Blackpool		Milton Keynes Dons
9	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	3
2	Corners	4
11	Fouls	19
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
360	Passes	373
48%	Possession %	52%
0.75	xG	0.96

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Blackpool 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 1.51

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Blackpool -0.5

2.17BetVictor · fair 2.01 · qualifies at 2.07+ · 1.69u

Why this price?

Back Blackpool -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.17 with BetVictor — Blackpool must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 57%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.01. The offered 2.17 implies only 46%, so the price is 7.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.69 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Blackpool 1.60, Milton Keynes Dons 1.51.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Blackpool	39.5%	2.53	2.46 Dafabet	40.7%	-1.1
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.03	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-1.8
Match result	Milton Keynes Dons	35.6%	2.81	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+4.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.3%	1.22	1.24 BetVictor	80.6%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.7%	5.65	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.3%	1.66	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.7%	2.52	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	-2.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.9%	2.64	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.1%	1.61	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.8%	1.59	1.53 William Hill	65.4%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.2%	2.69	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	-2.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons: too close to call

Our model makes Blackpool 40% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 25% and Milton Keynes Dons at 36%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Blackpool against 1.51 for Milton Keynes Dons — almost nothing to Blackpool on expected output. A combined 3.12 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 2-2 7%

This season

Season records for Blackpool and Milton Keynes Dons
Blackpool		Milton Keynes Dons
12	Played	13
3-3-6	W-D-L	4-6-3
1.00	Pts / game	1.38
1.42	Goals for / game	1.69
1.75	Goals against / game	1.54
58%	Over 2.5	54%
67%	BTTS	69%
17%	Clean sheets	23%
17%	Failed to score	23%
2-2-2	Home record	3-3-1
1-1-4	Away record	1-3-2
D1	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Blackpool · Milton Keynes Dons

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.4	Shots	15.7
3.8	Shots on target	5.0
6.8	Corners	5.2
2.60	Cards	1.83
11.0	Fouls	13.7
48	Possession %	49
0.95	xG	1.93
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.2	Shots	13.0
5.4	Shots on target	4.0
7.6	Corners	5.0
1.80	Cards	1.67
12.6	Fouls	11.5
52	Possession %	51
1.56	xG	1.35
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Blackpool	Metric	Milton Keynes Dons
1.50	Goals scored	4.00 (better)
2.50	Goals conceded	2.33 (better)
0.68 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.44
	Big chances
3.75	Shots on target	8.67 (better)
12.25	Total shots	21.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.25	Corners	6.67 (better)
45.3	Possession %	56.7 (better)
382	Passes	459 (better)
	Tackles
14.25	Fouls	10.67 (better)
1.75	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.75	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Blackpool wins: 1
Draws: 0
Milton Keynes Dons wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons2–02026-10-20

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5