Blackpool v Mansfield Town

19th1–411th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Blackpool		Mansfield Town
13	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	6
6	Corners	7
7	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
469	Passes	405
53%	Possession %	47%
1.15	xG	1.92

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Blackpool 37%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.43

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Blackpool -0.5

2.42Bet365 · fair 2.17 · qualifies at 2.23+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Blackpool -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.42 with Bet365 — Blackpool must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 52%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.17. The offered 2.42 implies only 41%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Blackpool 1.45, Mansfield Town 1.43.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Blackpool	37.4%	2.68	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	+1.6
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.84	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-1.0
Match result	Mansfield Town	36.6%	2.73	2.75 Dafabet	36.4%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.8%	1.27	1.23 BetVictor	81.3%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.2%	4.72	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.0%	1.82	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-3.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.0%	2.22	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.6%	3.07	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.4%	1.48	1.46 BetVictor	68.5%	-1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.8%	1.70	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.2%	2.43	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Blackpool v Mansfield Town: too close to call

Our model makes Blackpool 37% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mansfield Town at 37%. The goal projection is 1.45 for Blackpool against 1.43 for Mansfield Town — almost nothing to Blackpool on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Blackpool and Mansfield Town
Blackpool		Mansfield Town
12	Played	13
3-3-6	W-D-L	5-4-4
1.00	Pts / game	1.46
1.42	Goals for / game	1.54
1.75	Goals against / game	1.38
58%	Over 2.5	62%
67%	BTTS	54%
17%	Clean sheets	23%
17%	Failed to score	38%
2-2-2	Home record	3-2-1
1-1-4	Away record	2-2-3
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Blackpool · Mansfield Town

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.4	Shots	16.0
3.8	Shots on target	4.7
6.8	Corners	7.0
2.60	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	12.8
48	Possession %	53
0.95	xG	2.10
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.2	Shots	12.3
5.4	Shots on target	3.2
7.6	Corners	4.5
1.80	Cards	2.17
12.6	Fouls	10.3
52	Possession %	47
1.56	xG	1.01
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Blackpool	Metric	Mansfield Town
1.50 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.50	Goals conceded	1.33 (better)
0.68	Expected goals (xG)	2.92 (better)
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.67
12.25	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.25	Corners	7.00 (better)
45.3	Possession %	57.3 (better)
381	Passes	443 (better)
	Tackles
14.25	Fouls	12.33 (better)
1.75	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Blackpool wins: 1
Draws: 0
Mansfield Town wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5