Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück

6th2–114th

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		VfL Osnabrück
15	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	1
6	Corners	0
14	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	0
511	Passes	505
51%	Possession %	49%
1.04	xG	1.41

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 70%
Over 3.5: 49%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Arminia Bielefeld 48%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.04 – 1.58

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Arminia Bielefeld	48.0%	2.08	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-6.0
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.47	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-1.4
Match result	VfL Osnabrück	29.6%	3.38	4.45 Betano	22.5%	+7.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.1%	1.14	1.19 Betano	84.0%	+4.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.9%	8.39	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-8.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.0%	1.43	1.65 BetVictor	60.6%	+9.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	30.0%	3.33	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-10.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	48.8%	2.05	2.42 Betano	41.3%	+7.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	51.2%	1.95	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-11.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.5%	1.44	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.5%	3.28	2.40 BetVictor	41.7%	-11.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Arminia Bielefeld favoured against VfL Osnabrück

Our model makes Arminia Bielefeld 48% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and VfL Osnabrück at 30%. The goal projection is 2.04 for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.58 for VfL Osnabrück — a clear edge to Arminia Bielefeld on expected output. A combined 3.61 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück
Arminia Bielefeld		VfL Osnabrück
11	Played	11
5-2-4	W-D-L	3-2-6
1.55	Pts / game	1.00
1.64	Goals for / game	1.27
1.45	Goals against / game	1.64
82%	Over 2.5	55%
73%	BTTS	55%
18%	Clean sheets	18%
9%	Failed to score	27%
3-2-0	Home record	2-1-3
2-0-4	Away record	1-1-3
W2	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Arminia Bielefeld · VfL Osnabrück

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.8	Shots	12.8
3.2	Shots on target	5.2
4.2	Corners	3.6
3.17	Cards	1.60
12.0	Fouls	9.4
39	Possession %	43
1.10	xG	1.58
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	16.2
3.5	Shots on target	4.0
4.3	Corners	7.0
1.67	Cards	2.40
10.5	Fouls	9.4
62	Possession %	57
1.32	xG	1.17
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Arminia Bielefeld	Metric	VfL Osnabrück
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
2.40	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.00	Expected goals (xG)	1.66 (better)
	Big chances
3.50	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
13.00	Total shots	13.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	2.50
48.0 (better)	Possession %	43.0
421	Passes	436 (better)
	Tackles
13.25	Fouls	11.00 (better)
1.33 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	4.00
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Arminia Bielefeld wins: 1
Draws: 0
VfL Osnabrück wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück2–12026-10-18

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5