Arminia Bielefeld v Eintracht Braunschweig

6th3–113th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		Eintracht Braunschweig
15	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	4
16	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
452	Passes	482
48%	Possession %	52%
1.27	xG	0.37

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Arminia Bielefeld 54%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.13 – 1.37

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

2.52Betano · fair 2.42 · qualifies at 2.51+ · 0.72u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 2.52 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.41. The offered 2.52 implies only 40%, so the price is 4.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.72 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 2.13, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.37.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Arminia Bielefeld	54.5%	1.84	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+4.5
Match result	Draw	21.7%	4.61	3.95 Dafabet	25.3%	-3.6
Match result	Eintracht Braunschweig	23.8%	4.19	4.20 Dafabet	23.8%	+0.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.8%	1.15	1.26 Betano	79.4%	+7.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.2%	7.57	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-6.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.8%	1.48	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+12.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.2%	3.10	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	-10.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.2%	2.17	2.90 Betano	34.5%	+11.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.8%	1.86	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-12.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.1%	1.51	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.9%	2.95	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-8.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Arminia Bielefeld favoured against Eintracht Braunschweig

Our model makes Arminia Bielefeld 54% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Eintracht Braunschweig at 24%. The goal projection is 2.13 for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.37 for Eintracht Braunschweig — a substantial edge to Arminia Bielefeld on expected output. A combined 3.49 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig
Arminia Bielefeld		Eintracht Braunschweig
11	Played	11
5-2-4	W-D-L	3-2-6
1.55	Pts / game	1.00
1.64	Goals for / game	1.45
1.45	Goals against / game	1.64
82%	Over 2.5	45%
73%	BTTS	45%
18%	Clean sheets	27%
9%	Failed to score	36%
3-2-0	Home record	2-2-2
2-0-4	Away record	1-0-4
W2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Arminia Bielefeld · Eintracht Braunschweig

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.8	Shots	12.2
3.2	Shots on target	2.8
4.2	Corners	5.6
3.17	Cards	1.60
12.0	Fouls	11.8
39	Possession %	47
1.10	xG	1.04
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	12.6
3.5	Shots on target	3.4
4.3	Corners	4.0
1.67	Cards	2.00
10.5	Fouls	13.8
62	Possession %	53
1.32	xG	0.97
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Arminia Bielefeld	Metric	Eintracht Braunschweig
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.12	Expected goals (xG)	1.20 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
12.25	Total shots	13.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.75 (better)	Corners	4.50
47.0 (better)	Possession %	42.5
417 (better)	Passes	377
	Tackles
13.25	Fouls	8.75 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Arminia Bielefeld wins: 2
Draws: 1
Eintracht Braunschweig wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

Arminia Bielefeld v Eintracht Braunschweig3–12026-10-30
Arminia Bielefeld v Eintracht Braunschweig3–22026-02-08
Eintracht Braunschweig v Arminia Bielefeld1–12025-08-30

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5