Predicted Edge

Algeria v Niger

Algeria won 4 of the last 52–1Niger won 0 of the last 5

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Algeria Niger
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
—Yellow cards—
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Algeria 60%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.97

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsOver 3.533.7%2.972.40 Betfair41.7%-8.0
Total goalsUnder 3.566.3%1.511.53 Betano65.4%+1.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes53.8%1.862.20 Betfair45.5%+8.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No46.2%2.171.62 William Hill61.7%-15.5
Match resultAlgeria60.0%1.671.24 Betano80.6%-20.7
Match resultDraw22.5%4.456.00 Betfair16.7%+5.8
Match resultNiger17.6%5.6913.00 Bet3657.7%+9.9
Total goalsOver 1.579.5%1.261.19 Betano84.0%-4.5
Total goalsUnder 1.520.5%4.885.20 Betfair19.2%+1.3
Total goalsOver 2.556.1%1.78———
Total goalsUnder 2.543.9%2.282.38 Betfair42.0%+1.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Algeria favoured against Niger

Our model makes Algeria 60% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 22% and Niger at 18%. The goal projection is 1.96 for Algeria against 0.97 for Niger — a commanding edge to Algeria on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-0 10%
1-0 10%
2-1 10%
3-0 7%

This season

Season records for Algeria and Niger
Algeria Niger
5Played5
4-1-0W-D-L0-2-3
2.60Pts / game0.40
2.80Goals for / game0.40
0.20Goals against / game1.00
60%Over 2.520%
20%BTTS40%
80%Clean sheets20%
20%Failed to score60%
2-1-0Home record0-0-2
2-0-0Away record0-2-1
W3StreakL2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Algeria · Niger

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Cards—
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Cards—
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AlgeriaMetricNiger
2.00 (better)Goals scored0.75
1.80Goals conceded1.00 (better)
1.41Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
4.80Shots on target5.00 (better)
13.80 (better)Total shots8.00
Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)Corners1.00
66.0 (better)Possession %51.0
620 (better)Passes380
Tackles
9.20 (better)Fouls15.00
1.60 (better)Offsides6.00
Throw-ins
1.00Yellow cards0.00 (better)
0.00Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Algeria wins
1
Draws
0
Niger wins
0
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%