AC Oulu v VPS

4th0–06th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AC Oulu		VPS
10	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	8
14	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
320	Passes	462
30%	Possession %	70%
1.07	xG	1.51

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: AC Oulu 43%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.06

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	AC Oulu	42.7%	2.34	2.47 Dafabet	40.5%	+2.2
Match result	Draw	28.6%	3.50	3.45 Dafabet	29.0%	-0.4
Match result	VPS	28.7%	3.48	2.80 Dafabet	35.7%	-7.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.9%	1.43	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	-7.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.1%	3.32	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+7.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.1%	2.32	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-9.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	56.9%	1.76	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	+10.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.2%	4.51	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.8%	1.28	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.9%	2.04	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-9.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.1%	1.96	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+6.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AC Oulu favoured against VPS

Our model makes AC Oulu 43% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 29% and VPS at 29%. The goal projection is 1.35 for AC Oulu against 1.06 for VPS — a clear edge to AC Oulu on expected output. A combined 2.40 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for AC Oulu and VPS
AC Oulu		VPS
32	Played	32
14-6-12	W-D-L	11-7-14
1.50	Pts / game	1.25
1.28	Goals for / game	1.00
1.25	Goals against / game	1.34
41%	Over 2.5	38%
44%	BTTS	41%
38%	Clean sheets	28%
28%	Failed to score	41%
7-3-6	Home record	7-3-6
7-3-6	Away record	4-4-8
D1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. AC Oulu · VPS

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.1	Shots	9.9
4.0	Shots on target	2.6
4.1	Corners	4.6
2.29	Cards	1.86
11.1	Fouls	13.9
35	Possession %	53
1.13	xG	1.01
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.7	Shots	13.4
5.4	Shots on target	5.0
8.4	Corners	4.0
0.29	Cards	1.14
11.1	Fouls	10.4
65	Possession %	47
2.26	xG	1.72
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AC Oulu	Metric	VPS
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.20
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.08	Expected goals (xG)	1.12 (better)
	Big chances
3.60 (better)	Shots on target	1.80
10.00	Total shots	10.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	5.60 (better)
40.4	Possession %	54.4 (better)
375	Passes	404 (better)
	Tackles
10.80 (better)	Fouls	15.20
3.00	Offsides	2.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.20	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AC Oulu wins: 2
Draws: 1
VPS wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 20%
Both score: 20%

AC Oulu v VPS0–02026-10-28
VPS v AC Oulu1–02026-09-08
VPS v AC Oulu5–12026-06-23
AC Oulu v VPS1–02026-04-18
AC Oulu v VPS2–02025-10-04

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2