1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5WWLDD2nd2–0SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5LDDLW17th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
1. FC Nürnberg
SV Darmstadt 98
22
Shots
10
7
Shots on target
2
10
Corners
3
12
Fouls
6
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
3
620
Passes
369
63%
Possession %
37%
2.16
xG
1.17
57%
21%
21%
1 · 1. FC NürnbergXSV Darmstadt 98 · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
64%
Model pick
1. FC Nürnberg 57%
Likely score
2-1 10%
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.28
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
1. FC Nürnberg
57.3%
1.74
1.78 Betano
56.2%
+1.2
Match result
Draw
21.2%
4.71
4.40 Betano
22.7%
-1.5
Match result
SV Darmstadt 98
21.4%
4.67
4.30 Betano
23.3%
-1.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.3%
1.16
1.15 Betano
87.0%
-0.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.7%
7.29
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
-2.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.9%
1.49
1.52 Betano
65.8%
+1.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.1%
3.02
2.77 Betano
36.1%
-3.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
45.2%
2.21
2.27 Betano
44.1%
+1.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
54.8%
1.82
1.75 Betano
57.1%
-2.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.3%
1.55
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
35.7%
2.80
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-2.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
1. FC Nürnberg favoured against SV Darmstadt 98
Our model makes 1. FC Nürnberg 57% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 21% and SV Darmstadt 98 at 21%. The goal projection is 2.17 for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.28 for SV Darmstadt 98 — a substantial edge to 1. FC Nürnberg on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 10%
1-1 9%
2-0 8%
3-1 7%
1-0 6%
This season
Season records for 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
1. FC Nürnberg
Metric
SV Darmstadt 98
2.00
Goals scored
2.40 (better)
2.40
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
1.71 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.78
—
Big chances *
—
6.00 (better)
Shots on target
2.50
18.75 (better)
Total shots
11.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00 (better)
Corners
3.75
54.8 (better)
Possession %
41.3
497 (better)
Passes
369
—
Tackles
—
9.75 (better)
Fouls
10.50
1.25 (better)
Offsides
1.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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1. FC Nürnberg v 
SV Darmstadt 98