1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

2nd0–13rd

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		1. FC Kaiserslautern
31	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	7
11	Corners	3
9	Fouls	16
0	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
606	Passes	294
67%	Possession %	33%
2.18	xG	0.88

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 49%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.10

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	1. FC Nürnberg	49.1%	2.04	2.13 Dafabet	46.9%	+2.1
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.87	4.00 Betano	25.0%	+0.8
Match result	1. FC Kaiserslautern	25.1%	3.99	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.2%	1.31	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.8%	4.19	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+5.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.2%	1.95	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-11.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.8%	2.05	2.47 Betano	40.5%	+8.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.1%	3.43	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-11.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.9%	1.41	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.1%	1.85	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-11.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.9%	2.18	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+7.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

1. FC Nürnberg favoured against 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Our model makes 1. FC Nürnberg 49% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 25%. The goal projection is 1.63 for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.10 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern — a substantial edge to 1. FC Nürnberg on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Nürnberg		1. FC Kaiserslautern
11	Played	11
7-3-1	W-D-L	6-3-2
2.18	Pts / game	1.91
2.36	Goals for / game	0.91
1.18	Goals against / game	0.64
64%	Over 2.5	36%
64%	BTTS	9%
27%	Clean sheets	73%
9%	Failed to score	45%
4-1-1	Home record	3-1-1
3-2-0	Away record	3-2-1
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. 1. FC Nürnberg · 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
21.4	Shots	15.0
7.0	Shots on target	5.0
7.4	Corners	4.6
2.00	Cards	2.20
11.2	Fouls	11.4
60	Possession %	47
1.82	xG	1.47
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.4	Shots	16.6
6.0	Shots on target	5.8
3.6	Corners	6.0
3.00	Cards	1.00
14.2	Fouls	10.6
40	Possession %	53
2.33	xG	1.56
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
1. FC Nürnberg	Metric	1. FC Kaiserslautern
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.68 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.17
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
19.25 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	5.00
59.5 (better)	Possession %	51.8
513 (better)	Passes	329
	Tackles
10.75	Fouls	7.00 (better)
1.50	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

1. FC Nürnberg wins: 1
Draws: 1
1. FC Kaiserslautern wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern0–12026-10-24
1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern3–02026-03-21
1. FC Kaiserslautern v 1. FC Nürnberg1–12025-10-26

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5