1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5WDWLW4th6–1Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5LWLWL16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
1. FC Magdeburg
Karlsruher SC
16
Shots
12
8
Shots on target
4
4
Corners
4
5
Fouls
14
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
440
Passes
425
51%
Possession %
49%
2.75
xG
0.73
64%
18%
18%
1 · 1. FC MagdeburgXKarlsruher SC · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
57%
Both score
69%
Model pick
1. FC Magdeburg 64%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.64 – 1.36
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
1. FC Magdeburg
64.5%
1.55
1.87 Betano
53.5%
+11.0
Match result
Draw
17.9%
5.58
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-5.9
Match result
Karlsruher SC
17.6%
5.68
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-6.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
91.2%
1.10
1.16 Betano
86.2%
+5.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
8.8%
11.35
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-7.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
76.2%
1.31
1.50 Betano
66.7%
+9.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
23.8%
4.21
2.75 Betano
36.4%
-12.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
56.7%
1.76
2.20 Betano
45.5%
+11.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
43.3%
2.31
1.75 Betfair
57.1%
-13.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
69.4%
1.44
1.47 Betano
68.0%
+1.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
30.6%
3.27
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
-6.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
1. FC Magdeburg favoured against Karlsruher SC
Our model makes 1. FC Magdeburg 64% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 18% and Karlsruher SC at 18%. The goal projection is 2.64 for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.36 for Karlsruher SC — a commanding edge to 1. FC Magdeburg on expected output. A combined 4.00 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. 1. FC Magdeburg is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 9%
3-1 8%
1-1 7%
2-0 6%
2-2 6%
This season
Season records for 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
1. FC Magdeburg
Metric
Karlsruher SC
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
1.03
Expected goals (xG)
1.27 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
6.20 (better)
Shots on target
5.00
15.60 (better)
Total shots
15.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.60 (better)
Corners
5.50
52.2 (better)
Possession %
47.5
465 (better)
Passes
409
—
Tackles
—
10.00 (better)
Fouls
14.00
2.40 (better)
Offsides
2.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
1.00
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
1. FC Magdeburg v 
Karlsruher SC