1. FC Köln v 
Union Berlin
Match statistics
| 1. FC Köln | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 487 | Passes | 394 |
| 55% | Possession % | 45% |
| 3.04 | xG | 1.10 |
- Over 1.5
- 80%
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Both score
- 60%
- Model pick
- Union Berlin 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.33 – 1.65
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 51. FC Köln -0.75
Why this price?
Back 1. FC Köln -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.00 with Bet365 — 1. FC Köln must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 24% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 72%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.89. The offered 2.00 implies only 50%, so the price is 5.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.41 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.33, Union Berlin 1.65.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 1. FC Köln | 30.4% | 3.29 | 1.84 Dafabet | 54.3% | -24.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.80 Betano | 26.3% | -1.1 |
| Match result | Union Berlin | 44.4% | 2.25 | 4.75 Bet365 | 21.1% | +23.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.3% | 1.25 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | -1.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.7% | 5.09 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | -0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.67 Betano | 59.9% | -2.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | -0.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 34.8% | 2.87 | 2.62 Bet365 | 38.2% | -3.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | -2.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Union Berlin favoured against 1. FC Köln
Our model makes 1. FC Köln 30% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 25% and Union Berlin at 44%. The goal projection is 1.33 for 1. FC Köln against 1.65 for Union Berlin — a clear edge to Union Berlin on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 2-1 7%
- 0-2 7%
This season
| 1. FC Köln | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 2-3-4 | W-D-L | 1-4-4 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 0.78 |
| 1.11 | Goals for / game | 0.78 |
| 1.56 | Goals against / game | 2.33 |
| 56% | Over 2.5 | 44% |
| 78% | BTTS | 44% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 44% |
| 2-2-1 | Home record | 1-3-1 |
| 0-1-3 | Away record | 0-1-3 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. 1. FC Köln · Union Berlin
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.3 | Shots | 9.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 2.1 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.1 |
| 2.57 | Cards | 3.02 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 12.7 |
| 52 | Possession % | 38 |
| 1.55 | xG | 1.00 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 12.6 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 6.1 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 3.14 | Cards | 1.74 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 48 | Possession % | 62 |
| 1.24 | xG | 1.69 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| 1. FC Köln | Metric | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 0.60 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 1.30 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.25 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 15.25 (better) | Total shots | 13.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.50 (better) | Corners | 4.50 |
| 51.8 (better) | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 445 (better) | Passes | 369 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.50 | Fouls | 11.75 (better) |
| 0.75 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.75 |
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- 1. FC Köln wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Union Berlin wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln1–12026-11-01
- 1. FC Köln v Union Berlin5–02026-10-27
- Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln2–22026-05-02
- 1. FC Köln v Union Berlin0–12025-12-20