1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum

3rd2–08th

11:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		VfL Bochum
17	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	4
8	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
376	Passes	444
46%	Possession %	54%
2.37	xG	0.61

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 38%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.00

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	1. FC Kaiserslautern	40.3%	2.48	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-4.2
Match result	Draw	30.2%	3.31	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	+3.5
Match result	VfL Bochum	29.6%	3.38	3.15 Betano	31.7%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	65.4%	1.53	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-15.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	34.6%	2.89	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+11.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	38.0%	2.63	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-20.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.0%	1.61	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+16.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.2%	5.48	2.75 Betano	36.4%	-18.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.8%	1.22	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+13.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.0%	2.22	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-18.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.0%	1.82	2.38 William Hill	42.0%	+13.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

1. FC Kaiserslautern favoured against VfL Bochum

Our model makes 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 30% and VfL Bochum at 30%. The goal projection is 1.21 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.00 for VfL Bochum — a slight edge to 1. FC Kaiserslautern on expected output. A combined 2.21 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 12%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum
1. FC Kaiserslautern		VfL Bochum
11	Played	11
6-3-2	W-D-L	4-2-5
1.91	Pts / game	1.27
0.91	Goals for / game	1.00
0.64	Goals against / game	1.18
36%	Over 2.5	36%
9%	BTTS	55%
73%	Clean sheets	9%
45%	Failed to score	36%
3-1-1	Home record	1-2-3
3-2-1	Away record	3-0-2
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. 1. FC Kaiserslautern · VfL Bochum

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	17.3
5.0	Shots on target	5.7
4.6	Corners	5.8
2.20	Cards	2.00
11.4	Fouls	13.2
47	Possession %	52
1.47	xG	1.42
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.6	Shots	13.5
5.8	Shots on target	4.3
6.0	Corners	4.2
1.00	Cards	1.83
10.6	Fouls	8.5
53	Possession %	48
1.56	xG	1.55
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
1. FC Kaiserslautern	Metric	VfL Bochum
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.74 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.45
	Big chances
6.50 (better)	Shots on target	5.50
18.25	Total shots	19.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.75 (better)	Corners	6.25
51.3	Possession %	55.8 (better)
422	Passes	532 (better)
	Tackles
11.50	Fouls	11.50
1.50 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	3.50
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins: 2
Draws: 0
VfL Bochum wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum2–02026-10-17
VfL Bochum v 1. FC Kaiserslautern3–22026-03-07
1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum3–22025-10-04

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5