1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5WLWWD3rd0–3Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5WWWDW1st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
17
Shots
14
5
Shots on target
8
3
Corners
3
13
Fouls
12
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
3
413
Passes
368
53%
Possession %
47%
1.28
xG
2.90
36%
28%
36%
1 · 1. FC KaiserslauternXHertha BSC · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
25%
Both score
52%
Model pick
1. FC Kaiserslautern 36%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.26
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
1. FC Kaiserslautern
36.1%
2.77
2.90 Betano
34.5%
+1.6
Match result
Draw
28.1%
3.55
3.65 Betano
27.4%
+0.7
Match result
Hertha BSC
35.7%
2.80
2.34 Dafabet
42.7%
-7.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
72.4%
1.38
1.20 Betano
83.3%
-11.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
27.6%
3.62
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+7.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
46.2%
2.16
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-14.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
53.8%
1.86
2.40 Betano
41.7%
+12.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.7%
4.04
2.55 Betano
39.2%
-14.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.3%
1.33
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+11.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.0%
1.92
1.52 Betano
65.8%
-13.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
48.0%
2.08
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+8.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC: too close to call
Our model makes 1. FC Kaiserslautern 36% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Hertha BSC at 36%. The goal projection is 1.27 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.26 for Hertha BSC — almost nothing to 1. FC Kaiserslautern on expected output. A combined 2.52 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
0-1 9%
0-0 9%
2-1 8%
This season
Season records for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Metric
Hertha BSC
0.80
Goals scored
1.80 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
1.66
Expected goals (xG)
2.00 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.50
Shots on target
8.67 (better)
17.25
Total shots
20.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00 (better)
Corners
5.33
49.8
Possession %
50.0 (better)
403
Passes
429 (better)
—
Tackles
—
8.75 (better)
Fouls
11.00
1.75
Offsides
1.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.33 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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1. FC Kaiserslautern v 
Hertha BSC