1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5DLDLD7th1–1Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5DLDDL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
1. FC Heidenheim
Energie Cottbus
34
Shots
7
8
Shots on target
3
15
Corners
2
6
Fouls
7
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
1
386
Passes
313
57%
Possession %
43%
3.76
xG
0.56
51%
21%
29%
1 · 1. FC HeidenheimXEnergie Cottbus · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
57%
Both score
74%
Model pick
1. FC Heidenheim 51%
Likely score
2-1 8%
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.72
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
1. FC Heidenheim
50.7%
1.97
1.78 Betano
56.2%
-5.5
Match result
Draw
20.6%
4.84
4.70 Betano
21.3%
-0.6
Match result
Energie Cottbus
28.7%
3.49
4.20 William Hill
23.8%
+4.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
91.3%
1.09
1.09 Betano
91.7%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
8.7%
11.47
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
-2.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
76.4%
1.31
1.30 Betano
76.9%
-0.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
23.6%
4.23
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-2.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
56.9%
1.76
1.75 Betano
57.1%
-0.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
43.1%
2.32
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
-2.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
74.1%
1.35
1.33 William Hill
75.2%
-1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
25.9%
3.87
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-3.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
1. FC Heidenheim favoured against Energie Cottbus
Our model makes 1. FC Heidenheim 51% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 21% and Energie Cottbus at 29%. The goal projection is 2.30 for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.72 for Energie Cottbus — a substantial edge to 1. FC Heidenheim on expected output. A combined 4.01 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 8%
1-1 7%
2-2 7%
3-1 6%
1-2 6%
This season
Season records for 1. FC Heidenheim and Energie Cottbus
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
1. FC Heidenheim
Metric
Energie Cottbus
1.20
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
1.88
Expected goals (xG)
1.90 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.00
Shots on target
7.50 (better)
15.33
Total shots
17.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.33
Corners
8.25 (better)
53.0
Possession %
54.5 (better)
412
Passes
453 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.00 (better)
Fouls
12.50
2.00 (better)
Offsides
2.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.75
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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1. FC Heidenheim v 
Energie Cottbus