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UEFA Europa Conference League predictions: league phase matchday 2 (22 October 2026)

Every UEFA Europa Conference League match in league phase matchday 2 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Europa Conference League, league phase matchday 2: 18 matches, played on 22 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is FC Nordsjaelland, 63% to beat CSKA Sofia at home; the most evenly balanced game is FC Iberia 1999 v Mjallby AIF (FC Iberia 1999 36%, draw 28%, Mjallby AIF 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is FC Thun v HNK Hajduk Split, at 3.45; the tightest looks Getafe v FC Lugano, at 1.97.

The numbers this season

UEFA Europa Conference League has averaged 2.84 goals a game over 276 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 54% of them and both sides scoring in 53%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Kairat Almaty v PanathinaikosThu 22 Oct, 15:30

Our model makes Kairat Almaty 23%, the draw 29% and Panathinaikos 48%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is Panathinaikos to win at 48%. Kairat Almaty are 20th on 1 point from 1; Panathinaikos are 1st on 15 points from 6. Kairat Almaty have won two of their last five; Panathinaikos have won four of their last five.

FC Iberia 1999 v Mjallby AIFThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes FC Iberia 1999 36%, the draw 28% and Mjallby AIF 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.60 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Mjallby AIF to win at 37%. FC Iberia 1999 are 33rd on 0 points from 1; Mjallby AIF are 12th on 23 points from 23. FC Iberia 1999 have won one of their last four; Mjallby AIF are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats).

FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA SofiaThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes FC Nordsjaelland 63%, the draw 22% and CSKA Sofia 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 2.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is FC Nordsjaelland to win at 63%. FC Nordsjaelland are 4th on 18 points from 10; CSKA Sofia are 27th on 0 points from 1. FC Nordsjaelland have won one of their last five; CSKA Sofia have won one of their last five.

FK Crvena Zvezda v FC CopenhagenThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes FK Crvena Zvezda 36%, the draw 25% and FC Copenhagen 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.08 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. FK Crvena Zvezda are 23rd on 0 points from 1; FC Copenhagen are 1st on 24 points from 10. FK Crvena Zvezda have won two of their last four; FC Copenhagen have won four of their last five.

FK Jablonec v BrightonThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes FK Jablonec 23%, the draw 24% and Brighton 53%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Brighton to win at 53%. FK Jablonec are 6th on 17 points from 10; Brighton are 3rd on 13 points from 6. FK Jablonec have won two of their last five; Brighton have won three of their last five.

Getafe v FC LuganoThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Getafe 24%, the draw 31% and FC Lugano 45%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (16%), 1.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 68%. Getafe are 14th on 8 points from 8; FC Lugano are 1st on 28 points from 10. Getafe have won one of their last five; FC Lugano are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Inter Club d'Escaldes v Universitatea CraiovaThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Inter Club d'Escaldes 26%, the draw 27% and Universitatea Craiova 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Universitatea Craiova to win at 47%. Inter Club d'Escaldes are 34th on 0 points from 1; Universitatea Craiova are 3rd on 23 points from 11. Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Kauno Žalgiris v BrannThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Kauno Žalgiris 31%, the draw 28% and Brann 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Brann to win at 41%. Kauno Žalgiris are 36th on 0 points from 1; Brann are 7th on 29 points from 22. Kauno Žalgiris have won two of their last five; Brann have won one of their last five.

Pafos v RigaThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Pafos 49%, the draw 25% and Riga 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.82 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Pafos to win at 49%. Pafos are 32nd on 0 points from 1; Riga are 21st on 1 point from 1.

Trabzonspor v Heart Of MidlothianThu 22 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Trabzonspor 48%, the draw 24% and Heart Of Midlothian 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Trabzonspor are 5th on 13 points from 7; Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 8. Trabzonspor have won three of their last five; Heart Of Midlothian have won three of their last five.

Aarhus v Egnatia RrogozhinëThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Aarhus 46%, the draw 24% and Egnatia Rrogozhinë 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Aarhus are 10th on 8 points from 10; Egnatia Rrogozhinë are 15th on 1 point from 1. Aarhus have won one of their last five; Egnatia Rrogozhinë are unbeaten in four (one win, three draws).

Ajax v AtalantaThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Ajax 51%, the draw 24% and Atalanta 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.09 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Ajax are 5th on 15 points from 8; Atalanta are 10th on 9 points from 6. Ajax have won two of their last five; Atalanta have won two of their last five.

Borac Banja Luka v KuPSThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Borac Banja Luka 36%, the draw 27% and KuPS 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is KuPS to win at 37%. Borac Banja Luka are 26th on 0 points from 1; KuPS are 3rd on 48 points from 27. KuPS have won one of their last five.

FC Midtjylland v St. TruidenThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes FC Midtjylland 60%, the draw 21% and St. Truiden 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.30 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is FC Midtjylland to win at 60%. FC Midtjylland are 2nd on 22 points from 10; St. Truiden are 12th on 8 points from 8. FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); St. Truiden have won one of their last five.

FC Thun v HNK Hajduk SplitThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes FC Thun 30%, the draw 23% and HNK Hajduk Split 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is HNK Hajduk Split to win at 47%. FC Thun are 9th on 10 points from 10; HNK Hajduk Split are 1st on 19 points from 9. FC Thun have won one of their last five; HNK Hajduk Split have won four of their last five.

Lincoln Red Imps FC v TwenteThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Lincoln Red Imps FC 19%, the draw 24% and Twente 57%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Twente to win at 57%. Lincoln Red Imps FC are 28th on 0 points from 1; Twente are 4th on 17 points from 8. Lincoln Red Imps FC have won one of their last four; Twente are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

Monaco v SC FreiburgThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Monaco 38%, the draw 25% and SC Freiburg 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Monaco are 1st on 14 points from 6; SC Freiburg are 1st on 13 points from 5. Monaco are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); SC Freiburg are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

SC Braga v GentThu 22 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes SC Braga 48%, the draw 28% and Gent 24%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (13%), 2.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. SC Braga are 9th on 11 points from 7; Gent are 1st on 22 points from 8. SC Braga have won two of their last five; Gent are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.