Pafos v 
Riga
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Pafos 49%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.68 – 1.14
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketMembers
Every market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Pafos favoured against Riga
Our model makes Pafos 49% to win this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Riga at 25%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Pafos against 1.14 for Riga — a substantial edge to Pafos on expected output. A combined 2.82 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Pafos | Riga | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Played | 2 |
| — | W-D-L | 1-0-1 |
| — | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| — | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| — | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| — | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| — | BTTS | 50% |
| — | Clean sheets | 0% |
| — | Failed to score | 50% |
| — | Home record | 1-0-0 |
| — | Away record | 0-0-1 |
| — | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Pafos · Riga
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 8.0 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 8.0 |
| 2.0 | Corners | 2.0 |
| — | Cards | 0.00 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 35 | Possession % | 64 |
| 0.91 | xG | 2.31 |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 20.0 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 3.0 |
| — | Cards | 3.00 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 16.0 |
| 65 | Possession % | 36 |
| 3.47 | xG | 1.15 |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Pafos | Metric | Riga |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.60 | Goals conceded | 0.60 |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | ||
| Total shots | ||
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | ||
| Possession % | ||
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | ||
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
No previous meetings on record.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 | Brighton won 1 of the last 1 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 | FC Copenhagen won 1 of the last 1 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | Trabzonspor won 1 of the last 1 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 1 |
| 5 | Mjallby AIF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 1 |
| 6 | St. Truiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | St. Truiden won 1 of the last 1 |
| 7 | FC Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | FC Lugano won 1 of the last 1 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | SC Freiburg won 1 of the last 1 |
| 9 | Brann | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | Brann won 1 of the last 1 |
| 10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | HNK Hajduk Split won 1 of the last 1 |
| 11 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | Monaco won 1 of the last 1 |
| 12 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | Panathinaikos won 1 of the last 1 |
| 13 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | Gent won 1 of the last 1 |
| 14 | Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | Twente won 1 of the last 1 |
| 15 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë won 0 of the last 1 |
| 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | FC Midtjylland won 0 of the last 1 |
| 17 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | FC Nordsjaelland won 0 of the last 1 |
| 18 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Getafe won 0 of the last 1 |
| 19 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Heart Of Midlothian won 0 of the last 1 |
| 20 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Kairat Almaty won 0 of the last 1 |
| 21 | Riga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Riga won 0 of the last 1 |
| 22 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Universitatea Craiova won 0 of the last 1 |
| 23 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | FK Crvena Zvezda won 0 of the last 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | FK Jablonec won 0 of the last 1 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | Ajax won 0 of the last 1 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | Borac Banja Luka won 0 of the last 1 |
| 27 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | CSKA Sofia won 0 of the last 1 |
| 28 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | Lincoln Red Imps FC won 0 of the last 1 |
| 29 | Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | Aarhus won 0 of the last 1 |
| 30 | FC Thun | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | FC Thun won 0 of the last 1 |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | KuPS won 0 of the last 1 |
| 32 | Pafos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | Pafos won 0 of the last 1 |
| 33 | FC Iberia 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | FC Iberia 1999 won 0 of the last 1 |
| 34 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes won 0 of the last 1 |
| 35 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | SC Braga won 0 of the last 1 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | Kauno Žalgiris won 0 of the last 1 |