Zlin v Sigma Olomouc

16th1–15th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Zlin		Sigma Olomouc
15	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	5
16	Fouls	5
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
4	Offsides	1
364	Passes	452
53%	Possession %	47%
1.06	xG	1.19

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Sigma Olomouc 52%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.88

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Zlin	24.4%	4.10	4.00 Dafabet	25.0%	-0.6
Match result	Draw	23.6%	4.24	3.65 Dafabet	27.4%	-3.8
Match result	Sigma Olomouc	52.0%	1.92	1.91 Betfair	52.4%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.1%	1.22	1.28 Betano	78.1%	+4.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.9%	5.59	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-8.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.0%	1.67	1.90 Betano	52.6%	+7.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.0%	2.50	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-10.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.6%	2.66	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+6.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.4%	1.60	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-9.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.4%	1.66	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.6%	2.53	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-8.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sigma Olomouc favoured against Zlin

Our model makes Zlin 24% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Sigma Olomouc at 52%. The goal projection is 1.23 for Zlin against 1.88 for Sigma Olomouc — a substantial edge to Sigma Olomouc on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 6%

This season

Season records for Zlin and Sigma Olomouc
Zlin		Sigma Olomouc
14	Played	14
0-3-11	W-D-L	7-3-4
0.21	Pts / game	1.71
0.79	Goals for / game	1.57
1.93	Goals against / game	1.43
50%	Over 2.5	71%
57%	BTTS	57%
0%	Clean sheets	21%
43%	Failed to score	21%
0-1-7	Home record	4-1-1
0-2-4	Away record	3-2-3
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Zlin · Sigma Olomouc

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.0	Shots	14.5
3.3	Shots on target	4.7
2.8	Corners	4.8
2.58	Cards	1.27
15.7	Fouls	7.5
40	Possession %	48
0.62	xG	1.29
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.8	Shots	17.8
5.0	Shots on target	5.8
5.0	Corners	7.3
1.58	Cards	2.00
10.3	Fouls	12.7
61	Possession %	52
1.74	xG	1.75
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Zlin	Metric	Sigma Olomouc
1.40	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.70	Expected goals (xG)	0.87 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.67 (better)
9.33	Total shots	12.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.33 (better)	Corners	3.33
29.7	Possession %	47.7 (better)
214	Passes	408 (better)
	Tackles
15.33	Fouls	10.00 (better)
0.67 (better)	Offsides	1.67
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.67 (better)
1.00	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Zlin wins: 1
Draws: 1
Sigma Olomouc wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Zlin v Sigma Olomouc1–12026-10-24
Zlin v Sigma Olomouc5–02025-12-14
Sigma Olomouc v Zlin1–02025-08-16

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5