Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5LLDWL10th2–2Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5LWDDW9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Zbrojovka Brno
Bohemians 1905
13
Shots
14
5
Shots on target
3
9
Corners
5
8
Fouls
12
0
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
372
Passes
475
44%
Possession %
56%
0.98
xG
1.63
38%
30%
32%
1 · Zbrojovka BrnoXBohemians 1905 · 2
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
19%
Both score
46%
Model pick
Zbrojovka Brno 38%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.06
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Zbrojovka Brno
37.6%
2.66
2.34 Dafabet
42.7%
-5.1
Match result
Draw
30.2%
3.31
3.40 BetVictor
29.4%
+0.8
Match result
Bohemians 1905
32.2%
3.10
—
—
—
Total goals
Over 1.5
65.9%
1.52
1.30 Betano
76.9%
-11.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
34.1%
2.93
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
+8.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
38.4%
2.60
1.91 Betano
52.4%
-13.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
61.6%
1.62
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+10.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
18.6%
5.38
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-12.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
81.4%
1.23
1.38 Betano
72.5%
+8.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
45.7%
2.19
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-11.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
54.3%
1.84
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+8.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Zbrojovka Brno v Bohemians 1905: too close to call
Our model makes Zbrojovka Brno 38% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 30% and Bohemians 1905 at 32%. The goal projection is 1.17 for Zbrojovka Brno against 1.06 for Bohemians 1905 — a slight edge to Zbrojovka Brno on expected output. A combined 2.23 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 14%
1-0 12%
0-0 11%
0-1 11%
2-1 8%
This season
Season records for Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Zbrojovka Brno
Metric
Bohemians 1905
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
1.00
Goals conceded
0.40 (better)
1.45 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.42
—
Big chances *
—
6.00 (better)
Shots on target
3.33
16.33 (better)
Total shots
12.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
3.33
47.0 (better)
Possession %
46.3
362
Passes
402 (better)
—
Tackles
—
14.00
Fouls
11.33 (better)
1.67 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.33 (better)
Yellow cards
3.00
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Zbrojovka Brno v 
Bohemians 1905