Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5LLDWL10th1–3Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5WLDLD13th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Zbrojovka Brno
Baník Ostrava
10
Shots
14
3
Shots on target
10
3
Corners
8
10
Fouls
15
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
5
Offsides
3
418
Passes
357
53%
Possession %
47%
1.58
xG
1.74
48%
27%
25%
1 · Zbrojovka BrnoXBaník Ostrava · 2
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
52%
Model pick
Zbrojovka Brno 48%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.05
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Zbrojovka Brno
48.0%
2.08
2.10 Betano
47.6%
+0.4
Match result
Draw
26.7%
3.74
3.50 BetVictor
28.6%
-1.9
Match result
Baník Ostrava
25.2%
3.96
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
-2.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.7%
1.36
1.29 Betano
77.5%
-3.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.3%
3.80
4.00 Bet365
25.0%
+1.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
47.9%
2.09
1.87 Betano
53.5%
-5.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
52.1%
1.92
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
+2.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
26.2%
3.82
3.10 BetVictor
32.3%
-6.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
73.8%
1.35
1.40 Betfair
71.4%
+2.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
51.7%
1.94
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-7.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
48.3%
2.07
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+2.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Zbrojovka Brno favoured against Baník Ostrava
Our model makes Zbrojovka Brno 48% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Baník Ostrava at 25%. The goal projection is 1.54 for Zbrojovka Brno against 1.05 for Baník Ostrava — a clear edge to Zbrojovka Brno on expected output. A combined 2.59 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 11%
2-1 9%
2-0 9%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Zbrojovka Brno
Metric
Baník Ostrava
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
0.75
1.80
Goals conceded
0.50 (better)
1.47 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.91
—
Big chances *
—
4.33 (better)
Shots on target
2.50
10.67 (better)
Total shots
10.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.67 (better)
Corners
4.50
46.3
Possession %
49.5 (better)
359
Passes
381 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.33
Fouls
11.00 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.67 (better)
Yellow cards
1.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Zbrojovka Brno v 
Baník Ostrava