Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5LWDLW9th3–0MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5DLLWL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Zalaegerszegi TE
MTK Budapest
16
Shots
8
5
Shots on target
3
5
Corners
3
17
Fouls
11
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
379
Passes
447
46%
Possession %
54%
0.96
xG
0.96
42%
24%
34%
1 · Zalaegerszegi TEXMTK Budapest · 2
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
42%
Both score
66%
Model pick
Zalaegerszegi TE 42%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.55
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Zalaegerszegi TE
42.4%
2.36
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
-2.1
Match result
Draw
23.9%
4.19
3.70 Betano
27.0%
-3.2
Match result
MTK Budapest
33.7%
2.96
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.7%
1.18
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-0.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.3%
6.54
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-2.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
64.2%
1.56
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-0.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
35.8%
2.79
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-3.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
42.1%
2.38
2.32 Betano
43.1%
-1.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
57.9%
1.73
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
65.7%
1.52
1.47 Betano
68.0%
-2.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
34.3%
2.91
2.80 Betfair
35.7%
-1.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Zalaegerszegi TE favoured against MTK Budapest
Our model makes Zalaegerszegi TE 42% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 24% and MTK Budapest at 34%. The goal projection is 1.76 for Zalaegerszegi TE against 1.55 for MTK Budapest — a slight edge to Zalaegerszegi TE on expected output. A combined 3.31 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 6%
This season
Season records for Zalaegerszegi TE and MTK Budapest
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Metric
MTK Budapest
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded
1.40
2.15 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.82
—
Big chances *
—
4.50
Shots on target
5.75 (better)
13.00
Total shots
16.75 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.00
Corners
5.25 (better)
44.3
Possession %
53.0 (better)
332
Passes
457 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.00 (better)
Fouls
13.25
1.25
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.67
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Zalaegerszegi TE v 
MTK Budapest