Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5LWDLW9th1–1Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5LLDDD11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Zalaegerszegi TE
Kisvarda FC
11
Shots
7
3
Shots on target
3
6
Corners
2
15
Fouls
12
3
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
456
Passes
328
51%
Possession %
49%
0.68
xG
1.24
43%
28%
29%
1 · Zalaegerszegi TEXKisvarda FC · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Zalaegerszegi TE 43%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.10
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.1%
2.04
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+7.1
Match result
Zalaegerszegi TE
43.2%
2.31
1.95 Betano
51.3%
-8.1
Match result
Draw
27.9%
3.58
4.00 Bet365
25.0%
+2.9
Match result
Kisvarda FC
28.9%
3.46
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
+6.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.9%
1.39
1.22 Bet365
82.0%
-10.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
28.1%
3.56
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
+5.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
45.6%
2.19
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-11.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
54.4%
1.84
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
+9.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.2%
4.13
2.80 Betano
35.7%
-11.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.8%
1.32
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+9.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.9%
1.97
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-9.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Zalaegerszegi TE favoured against Kisvarda FC
Our model makes Zalaegerszegi TE 43% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 28% and Kisvarda FC at 29%. The goal projection is 1.40 for Zalaegerszegi TE against 1.10 for Kisvarda FC — a clear edge to Zalaegerszegi TE on expected output. A combined 2.50 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 11%
2-1 9%
0-0 9%
0-1 8%
This season
Season records for Zalaegerszegi TE and Kisvarda FC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Metric
Kisvarda FC
2.40
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
1.00
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
3.29 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.45
—
Big chances *
—
3.25
Shots on target
3.75 (better)
12.25
Total shots
12.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.25
Corners
5.25 (better)
45.8 (better)
Possession %
44.0
347
Passes
356 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.50 (better)
Fouls
14.50
2.00
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75
Yellow cards
0.75 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Zalaegerszegi TE v 
Kisvarda FC