Predicted Edge

Zaglebie Lubin v Korona Kielce

Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 56th1–0Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 511th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Zaglebie Lubin Korona Kielce
11Shots17
1Shots on target4
3Corners11
19Fouls12
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Offsides0
196Passes566
25%Possession %75%
1.10xG0.81
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Zaglebie Lubin 46%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.12

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Zaglebie Lubin -0.25

2.19Marathonbet · fair 1.98 · qualifies at 2.04+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Zaglebie Lubin -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.19 with Marathonbet — Zaglebie Lubin must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.98. The offered 2.19 implies only 46%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Zaglebie Lubin 1.53, Korona Kielce 1.12.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultZaglebie Lubin46.1%2.172.67 Betano37.5%+8.6
Match resultDraw26.7%3.753.35 Betano29.9%-3.2
Match resultKorona Kielce27.2%3.672.75 Dafabet36.4%-9.1
Total goalsOver 1.574.8%1.341.31 Betano76.3%-1.6
Total goalsUnder 1.525.2%3.963.50 Bet36528.6%-3.3
Total goalsOver 2.549.3%2.031.95 Bet36551.3%-1.9
Total goalsUnder 2.550.7%1.971.87 Betano53.5%-2.8
Total goalsOver 3.527.4%3.643.40 Bet36529.4%-2.0
Total goalsUnder 3.572.6%1.381.33 Bet36575.2%-2.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes53.4%1.871.75 Bet36557.1%-3.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No46.6%2.142.10 Betfair47.6%-1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Zaglebie Lubin favoured against Korona Kielce

Our model makes Zaglebie Lubin 46% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 27% and Korona Kielce at 27%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.12 for Korona Kielce — a clear edge to Zaglebie Lubin on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
2-0 8%
0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin Korona Kielce
14Played14
6-5-3W-D-L5-3-6
1.64Pts / game1.29
1.29Goals for / game1.00
1.21Goals against / game1.50
50%Over 2.529%
57%BTTS50%
36%Clean sheets14%
21%Failed to score36%
5-1-1Home record2-3-2
1-4-2Away record3-0-4
D1StreakL2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Zaglebie Lubin · Korona Kielce

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.7Shots20.4
4.0Shots on target6.0
2.8Corners10.8
2.87Cards2.00
13.3Fouls10.6
37Possession %53
1.12xG1.35
6 matchessample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.7Shots10.4
5.8Shots on target2.8
7.0Corners3.4
1.50Cards3.00
12.7Fouls17.4
63Possession %47
1.91xG1.48
6 matchessample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Zaglebie LubinMetricKorona Kielce
1.00Goals scored1.00
1.00 (better)Goals conceded3.40
1.09Expected goals (xG)1.40 (better)
Big chances
4.50Shots on target4.50
12.50Total shots14.00 (better)
Touches in opp. box
3.00Corners6.75 (better)
44.5Possession %49.5 (better)
322Passes422 (better)
Tackles
10.75Fouls8.75 (better)
1.00 (better)Offsides2.00
Throw-ins
2.50Yellow cards1.75 (better)
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Zaglebie Lubin wins
2
Draws
1
Korona Kielce wins
0
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
33%
Both score
67%
Ekstraklasa table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Lech Poznan131021+2132Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2Gornik Zabrze14941+1131Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3Legia Warszawa14662+1024Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4Pogon Szczecin13733+524Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5Wisla Krakow14734+324Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6Zaglebie Lubin14653+123Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7Piast Gliwice14644+422Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8GKS Katowice14707+521GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9Jagiellonia13706021Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10Motor Lublin14545-219Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11Korona Kielce14536-718Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12Wisla Plock13436-715Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13Widzew Łódź14284+114Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14Radomiak Radom14428-1214Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15Cracovia Krakow14338-712Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16Raków Częstochowa144010-812Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17Slask Wroclaw14248-810Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18Wieczysta Kraków142210-108Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5