Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5DWDWL6th1–0Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5WWWLL9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Zaglebie Lubin
Jagiellonia
12
Shots
15
4
Shots on target
3
5
Corners
3
11
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
270
Passes
512
36%
Possession %
64%
1.96
xG
1.46
35%
27%
38%
1 · Zaglebie LubinXJagiellonia · 2
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Jagiellonia 38%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.45
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Zaglebie Lubin
35.1%
2.85
2.70 Betano
37.0%
-2.0
Match result
Draw
26.5%
3.77
3.55 Dafabet
28.2%
-1.6
Match result
Jagiellonia
38.4%
2.60
2.55 Bet365
39.2%
-0.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.1%
1.28
1.25 Betano
80.0%
-1.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.9%
4.56
4.00 Bet365
25.0%
-3.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
53.7%
1.86
1.75 Betano
57.1%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
46.3%
2.16
2.08 Bet365
48.1%
-1.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
31.4%
3.18
2.95 Betano
33.9%
-2.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
68.6%
1.46
1.42 Betano
70.4%
-1.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.0%
1.73
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-2.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
42.0%
2.38
2.25 William Hill
44.4%
-2.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia: too close to call
Our model makes Zaglebie Lubin 35% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 27% and Jagiellonia at 38%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.45 for Jagiellonia — almost nothing to Jagiellonia on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Zaglebie Lubin
Metric
Jagiellonia
1.40
Goals scored
1.80 (better)
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
1.19 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.14
—
Big chances *
—
5.25 (better)
Shots on target
3.33
15.25 (better)
Total shots
10.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.50 (better)
Corners
2.67
42.3
Possession %
55.3 (better)
342
Passes
455 (better)
—
Tackles
—
14.00
Fouls
13.00 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.50
Yellow cards
1.67 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Zaglebie Lubin v 
Jagiellonia