Yunnan Yukun won 2 of the last 5WDDLW7th1–1Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 of the last 5LWDDL11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Yunnan Yukun
Chongqing Tongliang Long
17
Shots
6
2
Shots on target
1
6
Corners
6
8
Fouls
8
1
Yellow cards
0
—
Red cards
—
0
Offsides
1
416
Passes
371
53%
Possession %
47%
2.16
xG
1.29
51%
23%
26%
1 · Yunnan YukunXChongqing Tongliang Long · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
62%
Model pick
Yunnan Yukun 51%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.30
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Yunnan Yukun
50.6%
1.98
1.73 William Hill
57.8%
-7.2
Match result
Draw
23.4%
4.26
4.30 Dafabet
23.3%
+0.2
Match result
Chongqing Tongliang Long
25.9%
3.86
5.00 BetVictor
20.0%
+5.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.20
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-1.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.7%
5.99
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-3.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.9%
1.62
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-1.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.1%
2.62
2.40 Betano
41.7%
-3.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.6%
2.52
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-1.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.4%
1.66
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-4.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.4%
1.60
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+0.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.6%
2.66
2.30 William Hill
43.5%
-5.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Yunnan Yukun favoured against Chongqing Tongliang Long
Our model makes Yunnan Yukun 51% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Chongqing Tongliang Long at 26%. The goal projection is 1.89 for Yunnan Yukun against 1.30 for Chongqing Tongliang Long — a substantial edge to Yunnan Yukun on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
2-0 7%
1-0 7%
1-2 7%
This season
Season records for Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Yunnan Yukun
Metric
Chongqing Tongliang Long
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
0.40
2.00
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.67 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.52
—
Big chances *
—
6.25 (better)
Shots on target
3.50
17.75 (better)
Total shots
11.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.50
52.0 (better)
Possession %
48.0
396
Passes
411 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.75 (better)
Fouls
15.00
0.25 (better)
Offsides
0.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Yunnan Yukun v 
Chongqing Tongliang Long