York v Accrington ST

7th1–19th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
York		Accrington ST
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	6
10	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
531	Passes	323
61%	Possession %	39%
1.87	xG	1.05

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: York 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.12

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

York -0.5

1.68Bet365 · fair 1.59 · qualifies at 1.64+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back York -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.68 with Bet365 — York must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 72%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.59. The offered 1.68 implies only 60%, so the price is 5.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: York 1.67, Accrington ST 1.12.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	York	49.7%	2.01	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-6.4
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.94	5.00 BetVictor	20.0%	+5.4
Match result	Accrington ST	24.9%	4.02	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	+11.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.2%	1.29	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-6.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.8%	4.39	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.7%	1.90	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-6.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.3%	2.12	2.32 Betano	43.1%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.5%	3.28	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-6.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.5%	1.44	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+5.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.2%	1.81	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.8%	2.23	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

York favoured against Accrington ST

Our model makes York 50% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 25% and Accrington ST at 25%. The goal projection is 1.67 for York against 1.12 for Accrington ST — a substantial edge to York on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for York and Accrington ST
York		Accrington ST
14	Played	14
5-5-4	W-D-L	4-7-3
1.43	Pts / game	1.36
1.71	Goals for / game	1.64
1.50	Goals against / game	1.21
50%	Over 2.5	50%
71%	BTTS	64%
21%	Clean sheets	29%
7%	Failed to score	21%
5-2-0	Home record	3-4-0
0-3-4	Away record	1-3-3
L2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. York · Accrington ST

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.4	Shots	17.1
3.4	Shots on target	5.1
4.1	Corners	6.9
2.00	Cards	2.29
9.6	Fouls	11.9
58	Possession %	47
1.26	xG	1.23
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.9	Shots	7.7
4.1	Shots on target	2.3
5.0	Corners	3.9
2.29	Cards	2.00
13.3	Fouls	10.9
42	Possession %	53
1.38	xG	0.72
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
York	Metric	Accrington ST
1.25	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
1.42	Expected goals (xG)	2.36 (better)
	Big chances
2.50	Shots on target	4.20 (better)
12.00	Total shots	16.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00	Corners	7.60 (better)
62.8 (better)	Possession %	47.8
551 (better)	Passes	357
	Tackles
10.25	Fouls	9.60 (better)
2.25 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

York wins: 0
Draws: 1
Accrington ST wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

York v Accrington ST1–12026-10-20

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5