Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy

7th2–214th

10:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Yokohama F. Marinos		Tokyo Verdy
14	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	6
13	Fouls	18
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	8
489	Passes	335
59%	Possession %	41%
1.97	xG	1.65

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Yokohama F. Marinos 55%
Likely score: 1-0 13%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 0.86

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Yokohama F. Marinos -0.25

1.62Bet365 · fair 1.50 · qualifies at 1.55+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Yokohama F. Marinos -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.62 with Bet365 — Yokohama F. Marinos must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 63% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 69%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.50. The offered 1.62 implies only 62%, so the price is 7.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.63, Tokyo Verdy 0.86.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Yokohama F. Marinos	54.9%	1.82	1.87 BetVictor	53.5%	+1.4
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.87	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-1.9
Match result	Tokyo Verdy	19.3%	5.19	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.7%	1.39	1.41 BetVictor	70.9%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.3%	3.54	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.5%	2.20	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.5%	1.83	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-4.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.1%	4.14	4.40 BetVictor	22.7%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.9%	1.32	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.1%	2.12	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.9%	1.89	1.83 William Hill	54.6%	-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Yokohama F. Marinos favoured against Tokyo Verdy

Our model makes Yokohama F. Marinos 55% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Tokyo Verdy at 19%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Yokohama F. Marinos against 0.86 for Tokyo Verdy — a substantial edge to Yokohama F. Marinos on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 13%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Yokohama F. Marinos and Tokyo Verdy
Yokohama F. Marinos		Tokyo Verdy
14	Played	14
5-7-2	W-D-L	3-5-6
1.57	Pts / game	1.00
1.50	Goals for / game	0.86
1.07	Goals against / game	1.57
29%	Over 2.5	43%
57%	BTTS	50%
43%	Clean sheets	21%
14%	Failed to score	43%
3-3-1	Home record	1-2-5
2-4-1	Away record	2-3-1
D1	Streak	W3

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Yokohama F. Marinos · Tokyo Verdy

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.5	Shots	8.8
4.0	Shots on target	2.7
5.7	Corners	3.3
1.50	Cards	1.67
12.7	Fouls	13.8
53	Possession %	39
1.37	xG	0.86
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.7	Shots	15.0
4.2	Shots on target	4.5
6.0	Corners	6.8
2.33	Cards	1.33
15.0	Fouls	12.0
47	Possession %	61
1.50	xG	1.51
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Yokohama F. Marinos	Metric	Tokyo Verdy
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.93	Expected goals (xG)	1.06 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.33 (better)
11.00	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.67	Corners	4.33 (better)
48.0	Possession %	49.0 (better)
412 (better)	Passes	374
	Tackles
11.67 (better)	Fouls	16.67
2.67	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.33 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Yokohama F. Marinos wins: 2
Draws: 1
Tokyo Verdy wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy2–22026-10-21
Tokyo Verdy v Yokohama F. Marinos0–62026-05-24
Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy3–22026-02-28

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5