Yokohama F. Marinos v 
Kawasaki Frontale
Match statistics
| Yokohama F. Marinos | Kawasaki Frontale | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 369 | Passes | 450 |
| 46% | Possession % | 54% |
| 2.05 | xG | 1.36 |
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Yokohama F. Marinos 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.57 – 1.45
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Yokohama F. Marinos -0.25
Why this price?
Back Yokohama F. Marinos -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.53 with BetVictor — Yokohama F. Marinos must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.29. The offered 2.53 implies only 40%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.71 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.57, Kawasaki Frontale 1.45.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Yokohama F. Marinos | 40.0% | 2.50 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | +6.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.2% | 3.96 | 3.75 BetVictor | 26.7% | -1.4 |
| Match result | Kawasaki Frontale | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.31 Dafabet | 43.3% | -8.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.18 Betano | 84.7% | -3.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.0% | 5.27 | 5.20 Betfair | 19.2% | -0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | -5.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.40 Betfair | 41.7% | +0.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 35.9% | 2.79 | 2.40 Betfair | 41.7% | -5.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | +0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -5.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 38.7% | 2.58 | 2.55 BetVictor | 39.2% | -0.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Yokohama F. Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale: too close to call
Our model makes Yokohama F. Marinos 40% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Kawasaki Frontale at 35%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Yokohama F. Marinos against 1.45 for Kawasaki Frontale — a slight edge to Yokohama F. Marinos on expected output. A combined 3.03 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 0-1 6%
This season
| Yokohama F. Marinos | Kawasaki Frontale | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 5-7-2 | W-D-L | 6-4-4 |
| 1.57 | Pts / game | 1.57 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 1.07 | Goals against / game | 1.71 |
| 29% | Over 2.5 | 79% |
| 57% | BTTS | 93% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 4-2-1 |
| 2-4-1 | Away record | 2-2-3 |
| D1 | Streak | L2 |
2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Yokohama F. Marinos · Kawasaki Frontale
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.5 | Shots | 10.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.17 |
| 12.7 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 53 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.37 | xG | 1.18 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.7 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 47 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.50 | xG | 1.46 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Yokohama F. Marinos | Metric | Kawasaki Frontale |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.60 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.30 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.49 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.33 | Shots on target | 4.67 (better) |
| 12.33 (better) | Total shots | 12.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.33 (better) | Corners | 3.33 |
| 55.3 (better) | Possession % | 54.3 |
| 427 | Passes | 505 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.67 (better) | Fouls | 13.67 |
| 2.00 (better) | Offsides | 3.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.33 | Yellow cards | 1.33 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Yokohama F. Marinos wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Kawasaki Frontale wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.67
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 67%
- Yokohama F. Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale4–22026-11-01
- Yokohama F. Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale1–22026-04-18
- Kawasaki Frontale v Yokohama F. Marinos0–52026-03-22
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | +25 | 33 | FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 31 | Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +22 | 30 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +20 | 29 | Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +9 | 27 | Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +5 | 23 | Kashima won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +6 | 22 | Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Urawa | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 22 | Urawa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 17 | Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 17 | Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 14 | Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 | Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 14 | Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 | V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 | JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 9 | Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 8 | Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5 |