Yokohama F. Marinos v Fagiano Okayama

7th1–110th

05:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Yokohama F. Marinos		Fagiano Okayama
9	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	5
8	Corners	6
9	Fouls	21
0	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	11
473	Passes	326
58%	Possession %	42%
1.02	xG	2.07

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Yokohama F. Marinos 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.14

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Yokohama F. Marinos -0.25

2.20BetVictor · fair 1.98 · qualifies at 2.04+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Yokohama F. Marinos -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with BetVictor — Yokohama F. Marinos must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.98. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 11.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.52, Fagiano Okayama 1.14.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Yokohama F. Marinos	45.4%	2.20	2.67 Betano	37.5%	+7.9
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.75	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-1.9
Match result	Fagiano Okayama	28.0%	3.58	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-6.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.1%	1.33	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-4.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.9%	4.02	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.8%	2.01	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-3.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.2%	1.99	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.9%	3.59	3.10 BetVictor	32.3%	-4.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.1%	1.39	1.39 Betano	71.9%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.9%	1.85	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	-6.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.1%	2.17	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+1.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Yokohama F. Marinos favoured against Fagiano Okayama

Our model makes Yokohama F. Marinos 45% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Fagiano Okayama at 28%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Yokohama F. Marinos against 1.14 for Fagiano Okayama — a clear edge to Yokohama F. Marinos on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Yokohama F. Marinos and Fagiano Okayama
Yokohama F. Marinos		Fagiano Okayama
14	Played	14
5-7-2	W-D-L	5-2-7
1.57	Pts / game	1.21
1.50	Goals for / game	1.14
1.07	Goals against / game	1.57
29%	Over 2.5	71%
57%	BTTS	64%
43%	Clean sheets	21%
14%	Failed to score	21%
3-3-1	Home record	3-1-3
2-4-1	Away record	2-1-4
D1	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Yokohama F. Marinos · Fagiano Okayama

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.5	Shots	13.8
4.0	Shots on target	3.8
5.7	Corners	6.5
1.50	Cards	2.00
12.7	Fouls	11.8
53	Possession %	46
1.37	xG	1.16
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.7	Shots	12.5
4.2	Shots on target	4.8
6.0	Corners	4.7
2.33	Cards	1.00
15.0	Fouls	9.8
47	Possession %	54
1.50	xG	1.47
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Yokohama F. Marinos	Metric	Fagiano Okayama
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.37 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.12
	Big chances
4.33 (better)	Shots on target	3.50
12.00	Total shots	14.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	6.25 (better)
54.3 (better)	Possession %	48.5
438 (better)	Passes	369
	Tackles
14.33	Fouls	11.00 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.25
	Throw-ins
1.33 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Yokohama F. Marinos wins: 0
Draws: 1
Fagiano Okayama wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Yokohama F. Marinos v Fagiano Okayama1–12026-11-07

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5