Predicted Edge

Yeovil Town v Leatherhead

Yeovil Town won 1 of the last 35–2Leatherhead won 3 of the last 5
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
49%
Both score
70%
Model pick
Leatherhead 47%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.62 – 2.01

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultYeovil Town31.0%3.221.49 Dafabet67.1%-36.1
Match resultDraw22.3%4.495.40 Dafabet18.5%+3.8
Match resultLeatherhead46.7%2.146.50 BetVictor15.4%+31.3
Total goalsOver 1.588.2%1.131.14 Betano87.7%+0.5
Total goalsUnder 1.511.8%8.496.00 BetVictor16.7%-4.9
Total goalsOver 2.570.4%1.421.53 BetVictor65.4%+5.0
Total goalsUnder 2.529.6%3.382.75 Bet36536.4%-6.8
Total goalsOver 3.549.3%2.032.10 BetVictor47.6%+1.7
Total goalsUnder 3.550.7%1.971.67 BetVictor59.9%-9.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes70.0%1.431.65 BetVictor60.6%+9.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No30.0%3.332.25 BetVictor44.4%-14.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Leatherhead favoured against Yeovil Town

Our model makes Yeovil Town 31% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Leatherhead at 47%. The goal projection is 1.62 for Yeovil Town against 2.01 for Leatherhead — a clear edge to Leatherhead on expected output. A combined 3.64 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 9%
1-2 9%
2-2 7%
2-1 7%
1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Yeovil Town and Leatherhead
Yeovil Town Leatherhead
3Played5
1-1-1W-D-L3-1-1
1.33Pts / game2.00
3.67Goals for / game2.00
3.00Goals against / game1.60
100%Over 2.560%
100%BTTS40%
0%Clean sheets60%
0%Failed to score0%
1-0-0Home record2-1-0
0-1-1Away record1-0-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Yeovil Town · Leatherhead

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
6.0Shots—
4.0Shots on target—
2.0Corners—
0.00Cards—
5.0Fouls—
53Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
20.0Shots—
10.0Shots on target—
12.0Corners—
0.00Cards—
6.0Fouls—
47Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Yeovil TownMetricLeatherhead
3.40 (better)Goals scored1.40
0.80 (better)Goals conceded2.00
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Yeovil Town wins
1
Draws
1
Leatherhead wins
0
Goals / game
6.50
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%