Predicted Edge

Xerez v Cadiz

Xerez won 0 of the last 11–3Cadiz won 1 of the last 520th
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Xerez 45%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.27

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultXerez45.4%2.204.00 Dafabet25.0%+20.4
Match resultDraw25.4%3.933.80 Betfair26.3%-0.9
Match resultCadiz29.2%3.432.10 Bet36547.6%-18.5
Total goalsOver 1.579.2%1.261.24 BetVictor80.6%-1.5
Total goalsUnder 1.520.8%4.804.33 Bet36523.1%-2.2
Total goalsOver 2.555.5%1.801.73 Bet36557.8%-2.3
Total goalsUnder 2.544.5%2.252.15 Bet36546.5%-2.0
Total goalsOver 3.533.1%3.022.80 Betfair35.7%-2.6
Total goalsUnder 3.566.9%1.501.44 Bet36569.4%-2.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes58.4%1.711.67 Bet36559.9%-1.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No41.6%2.402.32 Betano43.1%-1.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Xerez favoured against Cadiz

Our model makes Xerez 45% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and Cadiz at 29%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Xerez against 1.27 for Cadiz — a clear edge to Xerez on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-0 8%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Xerez and Cadiz
Xerez Cadiz
1Played13
0-0-1W-D-L2-4-7
0.00Pts / game0.77
1.00Goals for / game1.23
3.00Goals against / game1.38
100%Over 2.554%
100%BTTS62%
0%Clean sheets15%
0%Failed to score31%
0-0-1Home record2-2-4
0-0-0Away record0-2-3
L1StreakL2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Xerez · Cadiz

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots12.4
—Shots on target3.7
—Corners4.7
—Cards2.71
—Fouls12.1
—Possession %45
—xG1.05
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots14.9
—Shots on target3.1
—Corners5.6
—Cards2.29
—Fouls13.3
—Possession %55
—xG1.63
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
XerezMetricCadiz
0.60Goals scored1.20 (better)
0.80 (better)Goals conceded1.20
Expected goals (xG)1.27
Big chances
Shots on target3.80
Total shots13.20
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.60
Possession %51.0
Passes453
Tackles
Fouls10.80
Offsides1.20
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.80
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Xerez wins
0
Draws
0
Cadiz wins
1
Goals / game
4.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%