Wuhan Three Towns won 0 of the last 5LLLDL15th1–3Shanghai Shenhua won 4 of the last 5WLWWW6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Wuhan Three Towns
Shanghai Shenhua
14
Shots
14
8
Shots on target
5
5
Corners
3
9
Fouls
15
2
Yellow cards
2
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
1
495
Passes
576
47%
Possession %
53%
2.22
xG
4.18
31%
21%
47%
1 · Wuhan Three TownsXShanghai Shenhua · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
55%
Both score
74%
Model pick
Shanghai Shenhua 47%
Likely score
1-2 8%
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.16
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Wuhan Three Towns
31.2%
3.21
3.00 Dafabet
33.3%
-2.2
Match result
Draw
21.5%
4.66
4.20 Betano
23.8%
-2.3
Match result
Shanghai Shenhua
47.4%
2.11
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
+2.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
90.6%
1.10
1.11 Betano
90.1%
+0.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
9.4%
10.65
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
-3.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
74.8%
1.34
1.36 Bet365
73.5%
+1.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
54.9%
1.82
1.85 Betano
54.1%
+0.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
45.1%
2.21
1.93 Betano
51.8%
-6.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
25.2%
3.97
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-4.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
73.5%
1.36
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
26.5%
3.77
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-4.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Shanghai Shenhua favoured against Wuhan Three Towns
Our model makes Wuhan Three Towns 31% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Shanghai Shenhua at 47%. The goal projection is 1.75 for Wuhan Three Towns against 2.16 for Shanghai Shenhua — a clear edge to Shanghai Shenhua on expected output. A combined 3.91 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-2 8%
1-1 8%
2-2 7%
2-1 7%
1-3 6%
This season
Season records for Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wuhan Three Towns
Metric
Shanghai Shenhua
1.80
Goals scored
2.40 (better)
1.60
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
2.95
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
5.20
Shots on target
11.00 (better)
21.00
Total shots
23.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.60 (better)
Corners
5.50
54.0 (better)
Possession %
46.0
413 (better)
Passes
390
—
Tackles
—
10.40 (better)
Fouls
12.50
1.60 (better)
Offsides
2.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.40
Yellow cards
0.50 (better)
0.50
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Wuhan Three Towns v 
Shanghai Shenhua