Wuhan Three Towns won 0 of the last 5LLLDL15th3–5Shandong Luneng won 3 of the last 5WWWDD2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Wuhan Three Towns
Shandong Luneng
14
Shots
18
5
Shots on target
9
1
Corners
5
11
Fouls
12
4
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
1
604
Passes
412
59%
Possession %
41%
—
xG
—
32%
23%
45%
1 · Wuhan Three TownsXShandong Luneng · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
48%
Both score
69%
Model pick
Shandong Luneng 45%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.94
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Wuhan Three Towns
32.1%
3.12
3.55 Dafabet
28.2%
+3.9
Match result
Draw
22.7%
4.41
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-1.1
Match result
Shandong Luneng
45.2%
2.21
1.95 William Hill
51.3%
-6.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
87.5%
1.14
1.10 Bet365
90.9%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.5%
7.99
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+0.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
69.0%
1.45
1.37 Betano
73.0%
-4.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
31.0%
3.23
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+1.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
47.6%
2.10
1.90 Betano
52.6%
-5.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
52.4%
1.91
1.95 Betano
51.3%
+1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
69.1%
1.45
1.37 Betano
73.0%
-3.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
30.9%
3.24
3.25 Betfair
30.8%
+0.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Shandong Luneng favoured against Wuhan Three Towns
Our model makes Wuhan Three Towns 32% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Shandong Luneng at 45%. The goal projection is 1.62 for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.94 for Shandong Luneng — a clear edge to Shandong Luneng on expected output. A combined 3.56 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 9%
1-2 9%
2-1 7%
2-2 7%
1-3 6%
This season
Season records for Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wuhan Three Towns
Metric
Shandong Luneng
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.80
Goals conceded
1.80
2.00 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.47
—
Big chances *
—
4.80 (better)
Shots on target
3.50
17.40 (better)
Total shots
13.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.40 (better)
Corners
4.25
52.4 (better)
Possession %
50.3
398
Passes
445 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.60 (better)
Fouls
11.75
1.40
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
2.00
0.50 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Wuhan Three Towns v 
Shandong Luneng